Welcome to “The Opening Pitch,” a column we'll be delivering to you daily throughout the 2024 baseball season.
Opening Pitch's goal is to highlight our daily predictive edge on MLB moneylines and totals, share our favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My predictions for all of Thursday's MLB games can be found in the Action App (both in the PRO Predictions tab and on the match pages) and in the Predictions Hub.
You can also find the best lines on our MLB odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, August 27th.
Tuesday's MLB predictions, expert predictions, odds and preview for August 27th
Sean Zerillo's Astros vs Phillies MLB Best Bets
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
Justin Verlander and Aaron Nola have both shown declines in their underlying metrics over the past two seasons of the pitch-clock era compared to their respective 2022 levels.
Verlander (3.67 xERA, 15.1% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 4.61 botERA) won the AL Cy Young Award in 2022 (2.66 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%, 113 Pitching+, 3.34 botERA), but his fastball has dropped from 95 mph (career 94.3 mph) to 93.5 mph in that same span. He pitches more like a 40-something relief starter than an ace.
Aaron Nola (3.91 xERA, 16.3% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.65 botERA) has shown a similar decline in performance (2.74 xERA, 25.5% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 2.64 botERA), but his velocity decline is less severe. Still, Nola is in his age-31 season and signed a seven-year, $172 million contract last offseason. The Phillies need him to stay on the mound and keep pitching innings to repay his contract.
Nola's strikeout rate has decreased each of the past four seasons, while his walk rate has increased in each consecutive season.
Both teams will need extensive time from their starting pitchers on Tuesday — they used a combined nine relief pitchers in Monday's extra-inning game that ended in a 3-2 tie — and both teams have also played back-to-back games in more than a week — Philadelphia's last day off was Monday, Aug. 19, and the Astros' last day off was Thursday, Aug. 15.
The weather (87 degrees on first pitch, 3-4 mph wind to right field) should make for a slightly stronger offensive environment at the bank on Tuesday, and I predicted a total score of 9.13, compared to 8.7 on a non-weather day.
Bet: 8.5 or more (-114 or more)
Shawn Zerillo's MLB Royals vs. Guardians predictions and forecasts
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE)
The underlying metrics suggest that the respective ERAs of Michael Lorenzen (3.47) and Gavin Williams (5.13) should be reversed. Williams's underlying metrics are indicative of a pitcher with an ERA closer to 4, while Lorenzen projects as more of a back-5 starter with an ERA closer to 5.
Williams (xERA 4.52, xFIP 4.00, K-BB% 15.5%, Pitching+ 102, botERA 3.66) is allowing a high BABIP (.335) and a below MLB average stranded rate (67.4%). Both ERA drivers should regress toward league average (.289 and 72%, respectively). Additionally, our projection system for the remainder of the season has Williams' FIP between 3.99 and 4.14.
Conversely, Lorenzen (4.70 xERA, 4.99 xFIP, 6.6% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 5.13 botERA) is posting the lowest BABIP (.240, .278 career) and highest strand rate (82.5%, 74.6% career) of his career. Projecting Lorenzen's FIP for the remainder of the season is between 4.60 and 4.94.
Normally, the Guardians' bullpen would have an advantage, but their relief pitchers have been working harder recently, including in Monday's doubleheader. On Monday, the Guardians had five relievers pitch multiple innings, with Hunter Gaddis, Birch Smith and Emmanuel Klass pitching on consecutive days. In contrast, the Royals only had one reliever pitch on consecutive days (he pitched three innings on Sunday) and only two relievers pitched twice in three days.
Kansas City also has an offensive advantage, ranking fourth against right-handed pitchers since the All-Star break, while Cleveland is 26th, but the Royals are better offensively at home (11th) than on the road (20th).
I have a significant edge on Cleveland's first-half moneyline, but I'd need a -135 or better to play the bullpen game moneyline.
The weather (89 degrees on first pitch, 4-6 mph wind to right field) should help the new offensive environment at Progressive Field, which is seeing a big increase in home runs to right field in 2024 (120 home run coefficient for lefties, 93 from 2021-2023). I projected a total of 9.23 runs.
Bet: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-155 or above) | 8.5 or above (-118 or above)
Sean Zerillo's Best MLB Bets on Mets vs Diamondbacks
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
Sean Manaea has been in solid form over the past month, posting a 2.60 ERA, 3.07 xFIP and 24.6% strikeout rate (20 hits, 9 runs, 7 walks, 37 strikeouts) in 31 innings pitched.
Manaea's control has been excellent over that span, and his pitch modeling metrics have also improved (92 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 101 Pitching+, 3.89 botERA) compared to his prior 106 innings (86 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 95 Pitching+, 4.81 botERA).
Manaea started experimenting with a cutter (84 Stuff+) in 2024 (11.5% usage rate through July 24). Still, he's been using it primarily over the past month (0.2% usage rate) with much improved control and overall results.
After missing most of the year with a lat (back/shoulder) strain, Eduardo Rodriguez (4.65 xERA, 10.3% K-BB%, 4.11 botERA, 97 Pitching+) has performed much better in his past two starts (albeit against the Marlins and Rockies) than he did in his 2024 debut.
E-Rod's velocity (91.5 mph) is slightly down from last season (92.2 mph, 15.3% K-BB%, 83 Stuff) and is more in line with his 2022 form (91.7 mph, 4.20 xERA, 9.7% K-BB%, 78 Stuff+). His control (108 Location+) looks fine, but I don't think he's necessarily 100%. I'm over projecting Rodriguez's FIP range for the rest of the season (3.76-4.14, 3.86 career) and with a 4.43 FIP in 2022, I have him projected at 4.15-4.45.
Betting: Arizona passes after pitching change
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Shawn Zerillo's MLB Predictions and Forecasts for Tuesday, August 27th
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Atlanta Braves/Minnesota Twins, over 8 (-112, risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -120 or 8.5, -101)Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-110, risk 0.5u) at Caesars (purchase from Mets F5)Cleveland Guardians F5 (-130, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet on -155)Cleveland Guardians/Kansas City Royals, over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet on -118)Houston Astros/Philadelphia Phillies, over 8.5 (-103, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet on -114)Los Angeles Angels/Detroit Tigers, under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel ( -116)Miami Marlins / Colorado Rockies, over 11 (+100, 0.5u), FanDuel (bet -114), New York Mets F5 (+100, 0.5u), BallyBet (pass after pitcher change), Oakland Athletics / Cincinnati Reds, under 10 (-105, 0.5u), Caesars (bet -117), San Diego Padres / St. Louis Cardinals, under 8 (+100, 0.5u), Caesars (bet -108), San Francisco Giants / Milwaukee Brewers, under 8 (-118, risk 0.5u), DraftKings (flat -119 or 7.5, -101), Texas Rangers / Chicago White Sox, over 8. (-115, 0.5u), Caesars (bet on -122 or 8.5, -103) Toronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox, under 9.5 (-110, risk 0.5u) on FanDuel (flat -116)
About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University School of Law and passed the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He transitioned from a legal career into sports data and betting, working in baseball video scouting and financial regulatory compliance before joining The Action Network in 2019. As a Senior Writer and Analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA predictions using his proprietary models, contributes to a variety of digital content and podcasts, and has become a leading authority on baseball, MMA and horse racing betting.
Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.
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