Welcome to “Opening Pitch,” our daily column that will run throughout the 2024 MLB season.
Opening Pitch's goal is to highlight daily predictive edges on MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide betting notes and analysis.
My predictions for all of Friday's MLB games can be found in the Action App (both in the PRO Predictions tab and on the match pages) and in the Predictions Hub.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, August 13th.
Tuesday's MLB predictions, expert predictions, odds and today's preview (August 13th)
Royals vs. Twins
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs. Zebby Matthews (MIN)
The Twins are set to promote the team's No. 6 prospect, Zebby Matthews, to make his MLB debut on Tuesday, giving the team a boost in their starting rotation after the worrying injury news of Joe Ryan. It's hard to imagine Ryan will be back in 2024.
Matthews, an eighth-round pick out of Western Carolina University in 2022, had an impressive 97 minor league innings this season, striking out 114 batters (1.8% walk rate) while walking seven (28.6% strikeout rate).
Additionally, the right-hander displayed above-average pitch modeling metrics at Triple-A (101 Stuff+, 109 Location+, 107 Pitching+).
Matthews has a starting pitcher's build (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) and throws a five-pitch fastball that can reach the high 90s mph, but his control is his real asset.
Matthews is developing a split change to neutralize lefty hitters, but mixing in a cutter, sweeper and curveball should be enough to keep lefties off-balance, and limiting walks gives him a very high floor.
Projections put Matthews' FIP for the rest of the season between 3.99 and 4.55. I expect him to finish near the midpoint of that range (4.25-4.3).
Seth Lugo (2.72 ERA, 3.95 xERA, Staff+98, Location+100, Pitching+100, 4.42 botERA) projects to be the better pitcher (projected FIP range of 3.96-4.37 for the remainder of the season), but the difference isn't that great and Matthews should be an immediate hit.
In neutral stadiums, Minnesota will have a clear offensive advantage (projected wRC+ of 116 vs. 96 against right-handed starting pitchers).
To reiterate a point I made in this column on Monday, Kansas City boasts the 13th-best offensive rating at home (108 wRC+) and 24th-best offensive rating on the road (88 wRC+). They have the lowest strikeout rate and closest to average walk rate in the MLB at home, but they rank 5th and 29th, respectively, outside of Kauffman Stadium.
Additionally, Minnesota has also had the advantage with its bullpen (projected model-weighted ERA of 3.66 vs. 3.95 entering Tuesday) and ranks eighth and ninth, respectively, in both xFIP and K-BB% this season.
In contrast, the Royals were a bottom-five unit in both metrics (26th in xFIP and 29th in K-BB%) and only slightly improved (21st and 25th, respectively) in the short sample with trade-deadline additions.
Bet: Twins Full Game Moneyline (-120 or above)
Padres vs Pirates
Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) vs. Michael King (SDP)
Michael King (3.43 xERA, 93 StufF+, 102 Location+, 100 Pitching+, 3.75 botERA) is starting to show cracks in his profile after setting a new career high in innings pitched in July. A relief-turned-starter, King was acquired by San Diego this winter in the Juan Soto trade and has thrown 129 1/3 innings this season, a significant decrease from his 104 2/3 innings last season, 51 in 2022 and 63 1/3 in 2021.
The Padres have skipped the turn around the All-Star break to begin monitoring the Kings' workload, and despite a solid game log, his pitch modeling metrics have declined over the past 30 days (84 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 94 Pitching+, 4.46 botERA).
During that time, the Stuff+ ratings of three of his four pitches declined (his slider went from 124 during the season to 115) and his control also deteriorated.
King allowed four runs on six hits (two walks, seven strikeouts) in last Wednesday's game at Pittsburgh.
Luis L. Ortiz (4.09 xERA, 103 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 100 Pitching+, 3.99 botERA) has pitched well despite a below-average strikeout rate and has shown better control as a starter (11.2% K-BB%, 4.61 xFIP) than as a relief pitcher (10.4%, 4.75 xFIP).
Ortiz isn't thought of as close to his current metrics (projected FIP range 4.43-4.84) and is considered a fourth-string starter, but he does have an elite fastball (73rd percentile velocity, 78th percentile extension, 94th percentile run value) and his slider has produced even better results (.300 xwOBA vs. .326).
Ortiz gave up four hits (two home runs) and six runs in six innings against the Padres last Thursday, but aside from two errors, he was scoreless in those innings.
Since declaring them the winners of the trade deadline and recommending their future, Tuesday marks the first day I've shown the value of betting on the Padres in August.
Betting: Pirates Full Game Moneyline (+155 or higher)
Braves vs Giants
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. Kyle Harrison (SFG)
I don’t pay much attention to the home/road ratios of many pitchers, but Kyle Harrison (4.73 xERA, 14.1% K-BB%, Stuff+ 90, Pitching+ 92, botERA 4.99) was clearly a better pitcher at home than on the road early in his MLB career, likely for multiple reasons.
Harrison posted a 3.23 ERA, 3.84 xFIP and 18.8% strikeout rate in 69 2/3 innings at home, while holding opponents to a 6.6% HR/FB rate and a 0.65 HR/FB rate at Oracle Park.
However, Harrison has pitched 71 innings on the road, posting a 4.94 ERA, 5.06 xFIP and 10.6% K-BB%, allowing 2.15 HR/9 with a 17% HR/FB rate.
Harrison has thrown his fastball 60% of the time over his four seasons, and while it has produced the best results (.321 xwOBA) of any pitch in his arsenal (slurve .361 xwOBA, changeup .362), Harrison has allowed a ton of fly balls in the process.
Fly balls don't usually count against him at Oracle Park, which has the lowest home run park coefficient (79) in MLB over the past three years, allowing Harrison to be more aggressive at home.
Charlie Morton (4.60 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%, 95 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.34 botERA) had a terrible July (6.21 ERA, 11 HR in 29 innings) and has plummeted to replacement-level status.
Morton's fastball velocity (93.8 mph) is down 1.1 mph from last year and is his lowest since 2016, when he joined the Astros and wasn't ready to blossom as a 30-something, and his Stuff+ rating (95) is down 11 points from last season.
As a result, Morton is taking more barrels than he ever has (career average 6.2%) (10.1% barrel rate, 12th percentile).
Betting: Giants Full Game Moneyline (-105 or over)
Shawn Zerillo's MLB betting predictions for Tuesday, August 13th
For additional betting notifications, follow me on the Action Network App.
Cleveland Guardians (-118, 0.5u; bet -125)Colorado Rockies (+210, 0.25u) vs Caesars (small at +180)Minnesota Twins (+100, 0.75u; bet -120, reduce risk above -110)Pittsburgh Pirates (+178, 0.5u; bet +155)San Francisco Giants (+100, 0.5u) vs FanDuel (bet -105)St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds, over 8.5 (-115, risk 0.5u), ESPNBet (flat -122 or 9, -103), Texas Rangers/Boston Red Sox, over 10 (-103, risk 0.5u), Caesars (flat -111)
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