The Cleveland Guardians are in trouble, having gone a week since winning a baseball game, and the Minnesota Twins started a four-game series in Minneapolis yesterday with a doubleheader win.
Gavin Williams will take the mound for the Guardians and Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins on Saturday night. Oddsmakers have the Guardians at even-money (+100) money line at most shops, with the total at 9.
Tonight I was able to create a correlated three-leg MLB same-game parlay (SGP) for Twins vs. Guardians that pays almost 4-to-1 odds on FanDuel.
John Feltman's Twins vs. Guardians MLB Parlay Picks for Saturday (8/10)
Josh Naylor 1.5+ total bases (-110) Andres Jimenez 1.5+ total bases (-125) Guardians ML (+100)
Parlay Odds: +383 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly, this is a long shot for a reason.
For more previews of today's matches, check out our MLB betting hub.
Josh Naylor 1.5+ Total Bases (-110)
Twins vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Naylor has had a sluggish batting average of .224 over the past month, but he hit a home run in yesterday's doubleheader.
There's no doubt that Naylor hits the ball hard and has excellent numbers against the fastball. Woods Richardson throws his four-seam roughly 40% of the time, and Naylor has slash lines of .275 xBA, .475 xBA, and .360 xwOBA against the four-seam.
He is batting .257 and slugging .518 against right-handed pitchers in 2024.
Woods Richardson may see a regression going forward, especially considering he's walked more batters than he should have and hasn't struck out many. Naylor should be able to get a big hit or two on Saturday night.
Andres Jimenez Total Bases 1.5 or More (-125)
Twins vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
The Guardians have struggled recently, but that's by no means the fault of Jimenez, who has finally hit his stride recently, batting .358 in his last 14 games.
Given that many metrics point to poor luck, it's no surprise that Jimenez has finally broken through offensively. His batting average has improved to .259 this season, but his xBA is just .270.
That's good news for Jimenez, who will be facing Woods Richardson, who throws a fastball-slider-changeup combo 90% of the time, and has a great record against those pitches.
Below are some of his stats against his fastball and changeup (pitched 60% of the time by Woods Richardson).
Against fastballs: .284 xBA .416 xSLG .336 xwOBA
Against the changeup: .370 xBA .525 xSLG .400 xwOBA
His performance against the slider has dipped a bit, but he'll likely be able to hit the fastball and changeup in his first two at-bats. Jimenez should continue his strong form tonight, and I expect him to get a long hit or better.
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Guardians ML (+100)
Twins vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
I knew the Guardians would fall to the ground eventually, but I didn't expect it to happen like this. The Guardians desperately need a win on Saturday, and they have an aggressive opponent to help them get that win.
Woods' numbers against Richardson are mediocre, and his metrics project him to continue to decline. His xERA is 4.03 and his xBA is .245, both below league average.
While his hard contact has been limited, his 8.8 ABN suggests he's been fortunate in that regard. I mentioned his high walk rate and low strikeout rate above, which are all factors that work in Guardian's favor.
The Guardians aren't as elite as many people think, but they're still a good baseball team. Tonight is a good opportunity to buy cheap, but there seem to be a lot of non-believers in the market.
The bullpen needs to be better, but their overall work is solid enough that they'll make a comeback. I'm going to ignore the popular opinion on this one and go with the sharp one.
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