After back-to-back losses, the Minnesota Twins will try to bounce back thanks to Bailey Ober on Tuesday night in San Diego (9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV).
Minnesota is currently 2.5 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central and will face off against San Diego Padres left-hander Martin Pérez, a situation that's not favorable for the Twins given the veteran's running record.
Let's take a closer look at the best way to bet on Tuesday's Twins vs. Padres game with a same-game parlay bet.
Kenny Ducey's Twins vs. Padres MLB Parlay Picks for Tuesday
Bailey over 4.5 strikeouts or less (-106) Jackson Merrill over 2nd base (+125) Royce Lewis over 2nd base (+100)
Parlay Odds: +744 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly, this is a long shot for a reason.
Bailey over, under 4.5 strikeouts
You might be wondering why the over has such a low strikeout figure, and there's a good reason for it.
The Padres have been good at limiting strikeouts this season, but their strikeout rate last week was just 13 percent, which is pretty low.
The last three starters against them — Zebby Matthews, Bradley Blalock and Kyle Freeland — combined for just six strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings.
In fact, only one starting pitcher has exceeded that total in the past 15 games against the Padres, and that pitcher was Cal Quantrill, who was only a few days ago.
This is a very positive trend, and I'm not sure he'll stick around for much longer considering Coach Ober prefers to allow contact in the air. San Diego is second in OPS against flyball pitchers.
Jackson Merrill – 2+ bases
Honestly, it feels like a stolen base. Jackson Merrill has been fantastic this season, reaching at least second base in three of his last four games and riding a 13-game hot streak (.347 batting average, 10 extra base hits).
Merrill has been hitting well against flyball pitchers, batting .282 and slugging .488 against them while smashing 83 bases, tied for the team lead.
The rookie is batting .318 against right-handed pitchers this year, but is batting .217 against left-handed pitchers, slightly below his season average.
This is a man to be trusted.
Royce Lewis Total bases 2 or more
To borrow a phrase from a well-known Toronto-based recording artist, you know I had to do that to them.
One of the most talented baseball players in the world is trying to bounce back after going hitless for the first time in seven games, and he couldn't have picked a better pitcher to face on Tuesday.
Perez's recent production has been impressive, but the left-hander remains a soft pitcher who allows a lot of hard hits and tries desperately to make contact on the ground.
Royce Lewis is a batted ball velocity machine, posting a .999 OPS and hitting in 30.8% of his plate appearances against lefty pitchers this year.
Perez will allow a lot of contact, which we're happy about.
Lewis has only been held in check by strikeouts, but those won't be a concern in this game.
About the Author
Kenny Ducey, a leading expert on tennis betting and MLB handicapping, has developed an online following through his work with the Tennis Channel and his experience covering baseball for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. With over a decade of experience that includes covering the New York Knicks and Yankees for Fordham University's WFUV Radio, Ducey writes betting previews for the Action Network and is a digital contributor to the Tennis Channel. He has also worked for NBC Sports and DraftKings.
Follow Kenny Ducey @kennyducey on Twitter/X.
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