Check out the latest Contender Series Week 1 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, August 13, fight card.
Season 8 Episode 1 of Contender Series streams on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. New Contender Series events take place every Tuesday night through mid-October.
As with all UFC Contender Series events, some of the DWCS winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract at tonight’s event. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC’s primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC President Dana White is usually cageside for each show, and after each event, the UFC boss determines which fighters have earned a contract.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and props, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don’t forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Contender Series 1 odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 1 with our DraftKings promo code.
Contender Series Week 1 Odds & Best Bets
Middleweights: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-380) vs. Wes Schultz (+300)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Mansur Abdul-Malik is yet to see a second round in any of his five pro fights with one submission mixed in with his four knockout victories. He’s also fought only one opponent who had a winning record coming in – and that record was 1-0.
The MMA Masters product has clearly had his record protected up to this point in his career, though you can’t do much better than five first-round finishes.
He wrestled for the University of Maryland before competing in MMA, and based on his past fights, he will likely look for the takedown almost immediately. Overall, he is an elite athlete with extremely dangerous ground and pound and solid control from the top position.
His abilities on the feet and in submission grappling are an open question. There’s not a ton of tape on Abdul-Malik, and the tape that exists has him fairly easily picking up takedowns nearly immediately – though he finished his completely outmatched debut opponent on the feet (after a number of slams wore him out).
Wes “Party Time” Schultz is a bit more battle-tested with his 6-1 record. The lone loss came against 2023 Contender Series winner and now UFC fighter Dylan Budka. Plus five of his wins were against opponents with winning records.
Schultz also has a strong wrestling base. He’s a former high school state champion who was an All-American at the Division III collegiate level and also competed in Division 1. That’s probably not an ideal skill set to match up with Abdul-Malik, but at least he won’t be totally outclassed in the wrestling.
I was somewhat more impressed with Schultz’s overall grappling abilities, especially when adjusting for level of competition. While Abudl-Malik primarily just wants to sit up and throw bombs, Schultz is a bit more complete in terms of guard passing and submission attempts.
Abdul-Malik has big power and athleticism edges, though, which will be tough to overcome. I’m officially picking Abdul-Malik to win by knockout, but that’s not my bet.
These lines are too long, especially if the wrestling abilities cancel out and this turns into a somewhat sloppy striking match. I’ll take Schultz for half of a unit at +300 on DraftKings. I’d make him closer to a +200 underdog.
Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik defeats Wes Schultz via TKO
The Bet: Wes Schultz (+300 at DraftKings)
Welterweights: Meng Ding (-198) vs. Rami Hamed (+164)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Meng Ding, “The Ruthless Assassin,” is a veteran of more than 40 professional MMA fights and a handful of kickboxing fights already at just 29 years old. That gives him more experience than most of the other fighters on this card combined, though most of it was in smaller Chinese promotions with a questionable level of competition.
As one would expect with his kickboxing experience, Ding’s primarily a striker. Of his 34 wins, 27 have come via knockout with just two submissions. Ding is a long, rangy welterweight at 6-foot-2, and he’s at his best when striking at range.
He doesn’t manage that range especially well, though, allowing smaller opponents to close the distance and make fights more competitive than they should be. On the plus side, he uses straight punches to the body as a deterrent for advancing opponents, a fairly uncommon technique.
Ding will look to mix in the occasional takedown, though the attempts I saw were fairly basic and not set up well. It’s certainly not his A game, though it’s a useful strategy to keep opponents from getting too comfortable on the feet.
Rami Hamed is the oldest Contender Series competitor this week at 33, and he hasn’t competed since 2022. He’s won his last two fights via leg-kick knockouts, so he’s certainly comfortable on his feet, to say the least.
Hamed is a hyper-aggressive kicker, carrying his hands low while bouncing around the cage and launching kicks to all levels. While the leg kick might be his best weapon, I saw plenty of head kicks and spinning techniques as well.
All three of Hamed’s losses have come via submission, so there’s an obvious weakness on the ground – though I’m not sure Ding will be able to exploit it. Hamed has also fought a low level of competition with his last three wins coming against fighters with a combined 8-9 record.
My concern here for Hamed is that he’s giving up both height and reach, which could make his dynamic kicking game harder to execute. However, Ding doesn’t maintain range especially well despite being a taller fighter.
I’ll take a shot at the underdog here with a best line of +170 at BetMGM
Prediction: Rami Hamed defeats Meng Ding via knockout
The Bet: Rami Hamed +170 (BetMGM)
Light Heavyweights: Bruno Lopes (-230) vs. Mikhail Sazhiniani (+190)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
The first of what’s sure to be many returning Contender Series fighters this season is Bruno Lopes, who’s a perfect 12-0 – outside of his loss to Brendson Riberio on last season’s Contender Series.
Lopes was a huge favorite in that matchup, but he got caught by the awkward striking of Riberio. It’s not a loss that’s aged particularly well; Riberio is now 0-2 in the UFC.
Still, Lopes has impressed across the rest of his career. He regained the LFA light heavyweight title after his Contender Series fight with a submission victory, and he’s finished 10 of his 12 wins overall. One of those was a knockout win over UFC standout Gregory Rodrigues early in their careers.
Lopes mixes strikes and grappling well with solid clinch takedowns and a reasonable shot. However, he gets a bit lackadaisical defensively on the feet, relying on takedowns to bail him out after getting caught. That’s a dangerous plan at heavier weight classes, as he learned against Riberio.
Mikhail Sazhiniani has an impressive 13-2 record and a six-fight winning streak coming into the bout. From what little video that’s available on him, he’s a heavy striker who likes to sit down on single shots. He’ll mix in the occasional flurry when he has his opponent backing up, but he’s mostly a sniper.
His best weapon is heavy low leg kicks, which he throws often when at range. Those add up over the course of a fight, and they should also help him close the distance against the taller Lopes.
He’s also a capable wrestler with excellent takedown defense when needed and plenty of ground-and-pound finishes. I expect him to use it more defensively than offensively against the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he may mix in a takedown or two as well.
I’m tempted to pull the trigger on the underdog here, but the strength of schedule from Lopes is far superior. Given Sazhiniani’s tendency to shoot when clipped and Lopes’ submission ability, I’ll take a sprinkle on the Contender Series returning fighter by submission.
Prediction: Bruno Lopes defeats Mikhail Sazhiniani by submission
The Bet: Bruno Lopes by submission (+240 at BallyBet)
Featherweights: Jose Delgado (-325) vs. Ernie Juarez (+260)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Jose Delgado has eight pro fights to his name despite making his debut in the spring of 2022. He’s 7-1 across that short time with three of those wins coming in 2024.
Delgado’s a long, lean striker who flows smoothly on the feet, seamlessly switching stances even in the middle of combinations. At his best he launches power kicks from the outside, maintaining range before rushing in with flurries.
There’s not much tape on Delgado grappling offensively, though he showed good awareness with his D’Arce choke finish earlier this year. He sat his opponent down with a punch, did some damage from top, and then locked in the choke when his opponent tried to get back to his feet.
He’s finished all seven of his professional victories – five in the first round – so I have some questions about his cardio. Which isn’t to say it’s necessarily bad, just an open question. He also took this fight on slightly short notice when Ernie Juarez’s original opponent had visa issues.
Stockton’s Juarez is also a veteran of eight pro MMA fights with a perfect 8-0 record. Juarez has heavy hands, but he’s relatively slow/stiff for a fighter in the lighter weight classes.
He makes up for that a bit with solid output, constantly giving his opponents something to worry about while striking. That solid forward pressure leaves him open to takedowns, but he’s typically able to reverse position or scramble back to his feet.
He’s a strong grappler overall, perfectly timing his shots with his opponents strikes in order to pick up takedowns. While he can get a bit greedy with submission attempts at times, by and large, he maintains top position well to win rounds and damage his opponents.
Most importantly, he has excellent cardio and conditioning, keeping up his high output into the third round of his most recent fight despite taking plenty of damage up to that point.
If this one remains a clean striking fight, Delgado should cover his price tag here. That’s a big if, of course, especially against a scrappy opponent like Juarez who will look to shoot takedowns off Delgado’s kicks.
The likeliest outcome is a Delgado knockout or clear decision with strikes, but I’m not willing to lay the juice. Instead, I’ll be keeping my eyes open for a live betting shot on Juarez if he can weather the early storm and make this an ugly fight.
Prediction: Jose Delgado defeats Ernie Juarez via decision.
The Bet: Pass prefight (Juarez live after Round 1)
Flyweights: An Tuan Ho (+124) vs. Lone’er Kavangh (-148)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:05 p.m. ET
With both Chinese and Irish heritage, the London-based Lone’er Kavanagh checks a lot of promotional boxes for the UFC. It doesn’t hurt that he packs considerable power for a 125-pound flyweight with four knockout wins on his 6-0 professional record.
A smooth counterstriker, his traditional martial arts background is evident in his striking. He switches stances frequently and mixes in a healthy dose of flashy spinning and jumping techniques.
Unlike other fighters with karate or taekwondo backgrounds, he’s also very defensively responsible. Kavanagh holds his hands high and manages range well, moving all the way into clinch range or all the way back to safety to repel his opponent’s attacks. His best strike is probably his quick left hook from an orthodox stance, which he uses as a counter inside the pocket and has scored multiple knockdowns with.
He also mixes in takedowns well, mostly judo-style trips and throws, though he’ll shoot for takedowns as well. I wasn’t especially impressed with what he does with those takedowns – but it’s hard to lose a fight from top position.
The other flaw is his cardio. Kavanagh noticeably slowed down in the second round of his most recent fight before catching somewhat of a second wind. That’s to be expected with his high output on the feet, but it provides a shot for the underdog here to come on late.
An Tuan Ho has an identical 6-0 record with four finishes and two decisions. He’s fought lesser competition on balance, though.
Ho has a more straightforward muay Thai striking style, applying forward pressure with tight boxing combinations and leg kicks. He’s nowhere near as dynamic with his strikes as Kavanagh, but his approach should help manage his gas tank better.
I also don’t see much grappling from Ho, though he has a kneebar finish on his record. Either way, I don’t see this one turning into an extended grappling match from either fighter.
Kavanagh’s counterstriking matches up well with the forward pressure from Ho, so I’d be happy to play Kavanagh even at the price. However, given the cardio dynamics, I expect the vast majority of his win condition to be a finish, making his ITD line the better bet.
Prediction: Lone’er Kavanagh defeats An Tuan Ho via knockout
The Bet: Kavanagh Inside the Distance +300 (Betway)
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