Check out the UFC props for UFC Vegas 95 on Saturday, August 10th, as well as our favorite long shot prop bets.
UFC Vegas 95 will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, and the entire event will be available to stream on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
With 10 bouts, there will be plenty of prop opportunities at UFC Vegas 95, and the MMA prop team has found the right trio for the card.
Each episode of MMA Prop Squad will feature several bets selected by our team of prop betting enthusiasts, who have posted an ROI of +4.3 units per bet and +1.0% to date after a recent downturn.
As with any form of gambling, always bet within your ability. This guideline is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Props often offer attractive odds, but they are converted into cash much less frequently than standard bets. Also, prop odds can vary significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best price.
UFC Vegas 95 fight odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC using a DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 95 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Dan Stapp: Super Obvious Play on Zalal
Senior Editor, Action Network
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 5:25 p.m. ET
While this is certainly not the most attractive choice (especially when compared to my colleague's ultra attractive choice below), I still think there is great value in my Prop Squad selection this week.
Yousef Zalal (-425) will beat Jarno Ellens (+330), which seems like a foregone conclusion, at least according to a number of handicappers and analysts I respect.
Additionally, 96% of Tapology prognosticators have Zalal on the pick. This equates to odds of -2381, but is available in the range of -425 to -500 depending on the sportsbook. This may be a bit of a stretch, but I personally think Zalal has about an 85% (-568) chance of winning this match. So, while the payout in straight play is obviously minimal, I think there is solid value on his moneyline.
But this is the MMA Prop Squad, and we like to go after bigger prey, so this week, rather than just using Zalal’s moneyline as parlay fodder, I also dabbled in the prop markets for this fight, and here’s one that really stood out to me: Zalal to win by submission at +300.
The Dutch kickboxer clearly prefers to fight this bout standing up, and when given the chance he can control the fight with his distance, sharp striking and powerful uppercuts, but his takedown defense is shaky, which makes him the worst possible opponent against the Moroccan Zalal.
After a faltering initial run at UFC, Zalal racked up three stoppage wins on the regional circuit, which earned him a return to the UFC earlier this year, where he is now on a roll after defeating incredibly tough UFC veteran Billy Quarantillo by submission.
Over 15 minutes, Zalal will have ample opportunities to take this fight to the mat, maybe even get one takedown, and at +300 odds, I'll have Zalal beaten via submission.
Pick: Yousef Zalal via submission (+300 on ESPN BET and DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: +1800 Submission Flyer
Action Network Contributor
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 6:25 p.m. ET
The featured prelim at UFC on Saturday is a matchup between No. 8 UFC bantamweight Karol Rosa (-218) and No. 11 Pany Kianzad (+180). If you’re betting on the favorite, I believe you’re more likely to get worse odds than a whopping 18/1 chance of Rosa winning by submission.
The line is ridiculously long because all nine of Rosa's UFC fights have gone to decision, but I invite you to consider with me why I think a submission victory is more likely than the estimated 18/1 probability of 6.25%.
Rosa comes into this bout on the mat with 11 successful takedowns in his last eight bouts, while Kianzad has 10 successful takedowns in his last seven bouts.
I think it's relatively safe to assume that at least a portion of this 15-minute fight will play out on the canvas, and once we get there, is there any chance that Rosa could get a submission?
Absolutely. Rosa is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and two of his last 11 professional MMA wins have come by submission.
She has also participated in grappling competition over the past two years, winning against Nat Benes via rear-naked choke and losing to Raquel Canute by the same move. Rosa has been actively working on her submission game, which could pave the way for a win over Kianzad given that Kianzad lost to Macy Chiasson via rear-naked choke.
Pick: Karol Rosa wins by submission (+1800 on BetRivers)
Clint McLean: Chelsea's decline
He is a contributor to The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast.
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 7:25 p.m. ET
Jana Santos (-148) faces Chelsea Chandler (+124) on Saturday, but the latter appears headed for elimination after Chandler broke the agreed-upon 136-pound limit and weighed in at 141 pounds at Friday's weigh-in.
The UFC is eliminating the women's 145-pound featherweight division, and Chandler has yet to make 135 pounds despite being ranked in the division, which will also mark her second consecutive fight missing weight.
Meanwhile, Santos appears to be in the best shape of his life and has a size advantage over the struggling Chandler. Santos comes into this bout in better condition, with better overall skill and cardiovascular fitness.
Chandler clearly has a terrible gas tank and considering the UFC may just fire her after this fight, you can't help but wonder where she is mentally this week.
I believe Santos will beat her, and then once Chandler fades, Jana will go all out and try for a late finish.
Pick: Jana Santos in Round 3 (+2800 on FanDuel).
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