Saturday's event will feature Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borrallo in the main event, so check out the UFC Vegas 96 odds with our experts' best bets.
UFC Vegas 96 takes place on Saturday from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, with the preliminary card streaming on ESPN+ beginning at 7pm ET (4pm PST) and the main card available to watch on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 10pm ET.
So where should you bet? Our team has identified four matches and five selections on Saturday's card that are worth betting on.
You can find analysis and predictions for these matches, plus Sean Zerillo's predictions using DraftKings odds, below.
UFC odds as of Friday (via DraftKings). Bet on UFC Vegas 96 using a DraftKings promo code.
Money Line Prediction
Prop Projection
UFC Vegas 96 odds and best bets
Tony Sartori: Denis Buzkuja vs. Francis Marshall
Action Network Contributor
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 9:25 p.m. ET
The featured prelims for Saturday's UFC are a featherweight bout between unranked contenders Denis Buzkudza (+125) and Francis Marshall (-140). Buzkudza was originally scheduled to face Danny Silva, but Silva withdrew due to injury earlier this week.
Marshall will be entering the fight on just four days notice, which is one of the reasons I think his odds are too high at -140. Neither of these two are all that great compared to their UFC peers, but if that is the case, it's worth keeping an eye on the underdog in what should be a 50-50 fight between two fighters of the same caliber.
After earning a contract through Dana White's Contender Series, Marshall defeated Marcelo Rojo in his UFC debut, but lost his next two bouts to William Gomis and Isaac Dalgaryan.
What worries me most is his recent loss, as Dalgaryan dominated Marshall in a one-sided bout that ended in a first-round KO/TKO. Marshall hasn't competed since his loss last August, and that extended break could leave him rusty in the Octagon come Saturday.
Meanwhile, Buzkudza completed a full training camp in March and is coming off a win over Conor Matthews, which was by far his best fight since joining the UFC, and I believe he can keep that momentum going against an opponent who is coming off a losing streak and hasn't fought in over a year.
Buzkudza is a more accurate striker than Marshall and has more power, and Marshall would prefer to take this fight to the mat, but I believe Buzkudza and his 72% takedown defense will keep the fight standing up, which would flip the betting lines.
Pick: Denis Buzkuca (+125 on BetRivers)
Dan Stoop: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Senior Editor, Action Network
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 10:05 p.m. ET
We've often heard that the smaller cage at the UFC Apex facility is a huge advantage for grapplers who take advantage of the tight space to practice takedown angles.
But we all too often overlook just how advantageous the UFC's small cage is for certain types of strikers, particularly quick starters.
The venue and opponent seem perfect for Edmen Shahbaziyan (-345), who will face fellow middleweight powerhouse Gerald Meeschat (+275) in the opening bout of the UFC Las Vegas 96 main card.
Shahbazyan starts fast but his cardiovascular fitness drops off sharply in the middle of matches, meaning that if he wins Saturday's match, it will likely happen within the first 10 minutes.
Meeschaert is tenacious against many fighters and can be a threat in the third round, but not against guys who can step on the gas quickly and have real KO power (Joe Peifer, Khamzat Chimaev, Ian Heinisch). Shahbazyan is a finisher (92% career win rate) and Meeschaert is too vulnerable to be the exception this weekend.
Instead of playing with the clear -345 moneyline, I'll go to the “Round Props” menu for this matchup on FanDuel to see if Shahbazyan will win round one or round two at odds of -130.
Either way, I don't think Shahbazyan will be particularly effective after the 10-minute mark, and a smaller cage and a more defensively challenged opponent should give him an advantage early on.
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan in rounds 1-2 (-130 on FanDuel).
Shawn Zerrillo: Tabatha Rich vs. Angela Hill
Senior Staff Writer, The Action Network
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 11:55 p.m. ET
As we mentioned in our preview of the UFC Vegas 96 main event, when there's a significant age difference between the opponents in MMA, the younger (and generally less well-known) fighter is often underestimated.
Of over 500 bouts since 2013, fighters who were 10 years younger or younger than their opponent have won 71.4% of their bouts at average odds of -137 (57.8% expected), a difference between their actual and expected win probabilities of 13.6%.
Tabatha Rich (-130) is at a size disadvantage against most of her opponents, including Angela Hill (+110), who is two inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Still, she is younger and a better athlete, and has the grappling advantage. I projected her as a 61% favorite to win (-156 implied odds). Bet Rich's moneyline at -145.
Hill is a better striker from distance (strike differential by distance is +0.0 to -1.4), but the smaller cage at UFC Apex allows Rich to reach Hill or press his opponent against the fence to initiate takedowns (averaging 4.2 per round with 35% accuracy).
Hill’s defensive wrestling (76% for his career) and overall grappling game have improved in the latter stages of his career, but still, Hill is nearly 40 years old and has less than .500 UFC fights under his belt. Ricci is clearly the A-side in this bout and is given an ideal matchup against a high-profile opponent who has struggled against other aggressive grapplers in the past.
The advantage for Hill is a close and competitive decision, while Ricci has the potential to win dominant rounds on the mat or even finish the bout.
In addition to the straight money line, I am also backing Rich in a finish-only market (-140) where your bet is refunded if the fight goes to decision, and I might use a submission bet on Rich (predicted +720, listed +800) on the round robin ticket.
Pick: Tabatha Rich (-125 on BetMGM) | End-of-day moneyline: Rich (-145 on DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borrallo
Action Network Staff Writer
Fighter jets exit: Approximately 12:25 a.m. ET
I don't often bet on the favorite side of point spread bets offered by DraftKings because it is relatively difficult for a fighter to cover the line without getting the finish, especially in a three-round fight.
Fighters must win all three rounds without any cheating from a corrupt judge.
But when it comes to five-round bouts, it's a different story: With the line set at -5.5, a fighter needs to win at least four of the five rounds to cover the odds, meaning you can still cash in your ticket even if you have a bad frame.
So, that brings us to this bet. Caio Borrallo (-258) has +150 odds to win this fight, which isn't far off the mark in terms of his -125 spread and implied probability (15%). I expect “The Natural” to be the better fighter in all facets against 40-year-old Jared Cannonier (+210), who is fresh off his first middleweight win in January.
Borrallo has better judo and jiu-jitsu abilities and is probably the better striker at this point in his career.
This is essentially a way to cut Borrallo's moneyline in half while still picking up the win, barring a tough call.
Pick: Caio Borrallo -5.5 point spread (-125 on DraftKings)
