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The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.
Tens of thousands of new recruits in masonry, earthworks and carpentry are needed to get closer to the target, they told the BBC.
The Home Builders' Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder, Barratt Redrow, said skills shortages, aging workers and Brexit were some of the factors the origin of the reduction in the workforce.
The government confirmed there was a “severe shortage” of construction workers, but said it was “taking steps to address” the problem.
Last week, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer reiterated the pledge he made shortly after coming to power to deliver 1.5 million new homes in England by 2029.
And on Thursday he unveiled sweeping changes to the planning system and pledged to overcome “blockers” hindering the building of new homes.
Labor hopes that building more homes will reduce house prices and make buying and renting homes more affordable, particularly for young people.
Its aim is to build an average of 300,000 new homes per year – the average in recent years being around 220,000.
The current workforce is estimated at 2.67 million, according to the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB).
But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs around 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the housebuilding industry in England and Wales.
According to government plans, the estimated number of new workers required for certain common occupations, for example, would be:
20,000 masons2,400 plumbers8,000 carpenters3,200 plasterers20,000 masons1,200 tilers2,400 electricians2,400 roofers480 engineers
The HBF said that while the industry had “the capacity to reach current construction levels, tens of thousands of new people will need to be recruited if we are to meet the targets set”.
Asked if there were currently enough workers to build the additional homes, David Thomas, managing director of Barratt Redrow, said: “The short answer is no.”
He told the BBC that the government would have to “revolutionize the market, revolutionize planning, revolutionize the methods of production” for its goal to be achieved.
“These are ambitious goals, I think we need to recognize that this is a national crisis,” Mr Thomas said.
But the HBF also said the UK “does not have a sufficient pool of construction talent” to employ. He cited several recruitment constraints, including poor perception and lack of training within schools, insufficient number of apprenticeships and the costs of hiring apprentices.
The industry body admitted the sector itself had not “attracted” enough new recruits in recent years.
All of these factors have led to an aging workforce over time, with a quarter of workers aged over 50, the report said.
Barratt Redrow boss Mr Thomas said recruitment had not been helped by efforts over recent decades to encourage young people to continue their education rather than take up trades.
“Going back to the 60s and 70s, I think parents, teachers and the government were very happy with the idea of people becoming craftsmen, electricians, plumbers, masons,” he said.
Average pay rates for these jobs “are high,” but the problem is “more in the availability of a skilled workforce,” he said.
An experienced bricklayer can earn around £45,000 a year, while carpenters are paid around £38,000 and electricians £44,000, according to government figures.
The skills shortage has been a problem in the UK for some time, but the gap has been partly filled in recent decades with workers from the European Union – a recruitment pool now dried up due to the end of freedom of movement following Brexit.
The HBF said 40-50% of skilled workers had also left the sector following the 2008 financial crash and that “restrictions” had made recruiting from abroad more difficult.
Mr Thomas said that historically the construction sector had recruited significant numbers of masons from eastern EU countries, admitting that “in hindsight” the UK was too reliant on foreign workers , but that this constituted the “norm”.
According to the latest industry census, Romania, India and Poland were the most common countries of origin for foreign construction workers. More than half of London's construction workforce are EU/EEA nationals.
Last month, the government announced £140m of funding to create an extra 5,000 construction apprenticeships a year and created “residential construction skills hubs” to accelerate training.
A government spokesperson said the skills hubs showed it wanted to “ensure this country takes skilled careers like construction seriously”.
But ministers were dealt a blow by local councils, responsible for implementing the new targets in their areas, who deemed them “unrealistic” and “impossible to achieve”.
Independent think tank Center for Cities also estimates the number of housebuilders will be 388,000 short of the government's target of 1.5 million.
But Barratt Redrow and the HBF have both welcomed the government's plans. The HBF said “a more pro-development policy approach” would allow the industry “to invest in the people and land needed to increase housing supply”.
Despite recruitment difficulties, Barratt Redrow plans to recruit between 16,600 and 17,200 over the next financial year, almost 4,000 more than Barratt itself predicted, before the merger with Redrow in October.
