After two weeks of fighting, Ukraine claims control of 1,250 square kilometres of Russia's Kursk Oblast, but also a highly strategic gas terminal for Europe.
The town of Suzha, just 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, was the focus of the Ukrainian military offensive and is now the base of the newly established Ukrainian military administration.
The once quiet road from Suzha to Sumy was buzzing with activity when EuraActive visited the area on Monday. Ukrainian tanks under camouflage netting, American armoured vehicles and numerous pick-up trucks sporting the operation's symbolic white triangle were passing through to and from Russia. On one vehicle returning from the border, the triangle had replaced the fearsome Russian Z that had been painted on two loot vehicles that had been “recovered” from Russia.
“It's very well organized here, we finally have enough of everything, it makes my work easier,” Petro, a logistician with the assault brigade, told Euractiv on his way back from the border. The village where he rested is about 15 kilometers from the border, now out of range of artillery fire as Ukrainian forces push deeper into Russia.
About a 30-minute drive away, the small Russian village of Suzda is of strategic importance to Europe as it is the only point at which Russian natural gas enters Ukraine before reaching European customers.
Despite EU restrictions limiting energy flows from Russia, EU member states Slovakia, Hungary and Austria remain dependent on Russian gas through the Suzha pipeline. They are the main suppliers, although Italy and Croatia also receive some gas.
The last gas metering station on Russia's Urengoi-Pomari-Uzhhorod pipeline outside Ukrainian territory came under Kiev's control on August 7.
Ukrainian military experts speculate that the facility could serve as a shelter for Ukrainian troops and equipment against Russian drones and glide bombs.
Another transport route from Rostov to EU territory via Sofranivka in the Luhansk Oblast has also been blocked by Kyiv since 11 May 2022. The Transmission System Operator of Ukraine claimed that the transport pipeline falls into occupied territory and therefore can no longer operate.
The Suzhagasmeter station belongs to a pipeline system originally called the Brotherhood and was built by the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when no one expected a war between Moscow and Kiev. The facility has previously allowed the registration of gas deliveries and receipts for transporters transporting gas through Ukrainian territory to European consumers.
“The Russian government has been trying to halt the flow of gas from Ukraine to the Ukrainian border,” the ministry said in a statement.
In 2023, the amount of Russian gas passing through Ukraine will average 42-42.4 million cubic meters per day, accounting for about half of Russia's natural gas exports. On August 8, Ukrainian gas operators confirmed to energy consulting firm ExPro that transit volumes had fallen to 37.25 million cubic meters. However, Gazprom said that by August 15, volumes had returned to 42.4 million cubic meters.
A Gazprom representative told reporters from the Russian state news agency TASS on August 12 that an application to transport oil through Sohraniivka had been “rejected” by the Ukrainian side.
By comparison, the TurkStream pipeline, which links Russia with southeastern Europe, transported an average of 45.5 million cubic meters of gas per day in July.
Potential unrest in Suzha has caused gas prices to spike temporarily, but the impact of the Ukrainian aggression is likely to be limited.
“The main risk is military,” Serhiy Makogon, former head of Ukraine's gas transmission system operator, told Ukrainian media outlet NV.
Five major gas pipelines crisscross the Suja region.
“If Russia launches heavy artillery and air strikes, the risk of technical damage to infrastructure is very high,” he said, while asserting that Ukrainian military operations had not damaged the operational Suzyagas weighing station.
“I would like to point out that our forces carried out the operation there without using heavy weapons. The gas metering station in Suja was not damaged and is still operational,” he added.
He also noted that not having real-time, daily information about the gas passing through the terminal could lead to commercial risks.
Moreover, the contract with Gazprom expires at the end of 2024 and neither Ukraine nor Europe intends to extend it, although they are discussing alternative options for loading gas into the gas transmission system (for example, gas from Azerbaijan).
“If Ukraine had wanted to, it would have terminated this contract a long time ago, but Kiev did not do so at the urging of the European Union,” Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of the energy program at the Ukrainian think tank Razumkov Center, told Euraactive.
Kiev receives just over $1 billion a year from transiting Russian gas, just enough to keep the gas transmission system in working order.
“Russia is keen to maintain its presence in the European gas market and to exert political pressure on Eastern European countries,” said Makogon, who headed the state gas company from 2019 to 2022.
Omelchenko stressed that transport remains crucial for Russia.
Despite the declining number of countries receiving Russian natural gas, Russian gas still generates around 6 billion euros each year.
(Editing by Aleksandra Brzozowski/Daniel Ek)
