There are only a few days left until the US election. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows no certainty as to which candidate will win. The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is currently very close, with both candidates expected to receive 48% support.
There was a difference when other candidates were taken into account, but it was a small difference of 46%. While respondents said they would vote for Harris, 47% chose Trump.
2024 US Election. New poll. The candidates are evenly matched.
A poll commissioned by the newspaper in early October found Harris with a slight lead (49% to 47%). This means, as the paper highlighted, that the latest results are “not optimistic” for Democrats. However, what is important in this context is the fact that the results are within a statistical error of 2.2 percentage points.
How Americans vote certainly matters, but ultimately the electoral votes decide. Each state has a fixed number of electors equal to the number of members of Congress (538 total votes). To win an election, a candidate must receive a majority, or at least 270 electoral votes.
See also: Kamala Harris outperforms Donald Trump. New research from the US
This system allows for voting in swing states, or battleground states. Election results in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona will be decisive. Recent polls have shown the competition there to be very tight, highlighting the NYT.
The NYT Siena College poll was conducted October 20-23 among 2,516 registered voters.
Harris or Trump? Opinion polls remain inconclusive
Another recent poll commissioned by the Wall Street Journal and conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates also predicted a victory for Donald Trump, with a 47% chance of winning. His approval rating is 45%, compared to Kamala Harris' 45%, but the difference between the two is within a statistical margin of error of 2.5%.
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The WSJ survey is one of six national surveys. Another similar poll (Ipsos for Reuters) released on Tuesday showed Kamala Harris could get 46% of the vote. Voters and Donald Trump – 43%
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