In an analysis on Saturday, Agence France-Presse AFP reminded that Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron “developed a special relationship” during their first term in office. The “honeymoon” was a dinner at the Eiffel Tower and a military parade in Paris on July 14, 2017, when the US president and his wife made an official visit to France.
Macron has weakened and Trump has become “like a shark.” Relations with France will also change.
However, expert Nicole Bakalan emphasizes that “neither (politician) is in the same situation now as they were back then.'' In her opinion, if Trump wins the election, he will feel “invincible”, especially in relation to the French leader, who has been weakened by political failures. An AFP interlocutor likened President Trump to a shark that “sniffs blood and is fatally injured.”
See: US presidential election. Kamala Harris leads
Paris predicts an “extraordinary acceleration” of US withdrawal from global engagement, and Harris “expects a more classical relationship” with the US if Kamala wins. However, AFP news agency said the lack of US involvement was seen as a “serious trend” and warned against “getting discouraged”.
French diplomats, whose names are not disclosed by the agency, are analyzing who in the future US president's inner circle will decide on foreign policy. In her opinion, both the Democratic and Republican camps are “more or less torn between isolationist and interventionist tendencies.”
AFP: President Macron warned that European issues were not a priority for the US
“I don't think Trump already has a comprehensive policy that he would implement if elected,” one diplomat told AFP. Another person cited the Elysée Palace as saying: “In any case, Europeans should stop relying on US elections to decide their positions and take their destiny into their own hands.” I am doing it.
As AFP points out, President Macron is already aware that Washington will forever be playing alone, “no matter who occupies the White House.” In this context, he referred to the “disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan without consulting our allies.” This is also the AUKUS agreement in defense technology between the US, UK and Australia, concluded 'behind France's back'.
In his speech in April, Macron pointed out that the United States has two priorities. “The United States, what's right, and the China problem.'' President Macron warned that “European issues will not be a geopolitical priority for years and decades to come.”
“Donald Trump does not have particularly good relations with Germany.''
Meanwhile, Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the Munich Security Council, estimates that President Donald Trump also does not have particularly good relations with Germany. In his opinion, even after the election, the United States will continue to focus more on foreign policy at home and in the Pacific region.
See also: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? How residents of major states vote
Both Democrats and Republicans want to keep their countries as far away from international conflicts as possible and no longer want to play the role of world policeman everywhere. – This brings both sides together. Heusgen said in an interview with RND on Saturday that as Europeans, we must be prepared to take on greater responsibilities both within and outside Europe.
Asked whether it matters whether Harris or Trump wins, he said the big difference is that the former is unpredictable. – The harmonious relations between the US and Germany, which were just celebrated during Joe Biden's farewell visit to Berlin, will no longer continue like this, he said.
“Germany is not fully prepared for President Trump's victory''
The head of the Munich Security Council said Germany was not sufficiently prepared for a Trump victory, for example because the control of the defense budget was “neglected” and Germany's defense budget was at 1.5%. That's what I think. GDP, or less than 2 percent. Imposed by NATO.
See also: Donald Trump threatens the European Union. “They will have to pay.”
As he recalled, President Trump had already announced that he would withdraw US protection from NATO countries that do not contribute to fair burden sharing. – But we depend on American support to provide a reliable deterrent… Without the American nuclear umbrella, we are vulnerable to intimidation, he acknowledged.
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