The final major tournament of the 2024 tennis season is upon us. It's time for the US Open. The competition at Flushing Meadows will be fierce, as the world's top players look to make their final big results at the Grand Slam. With that in mind, I'll be handicapping all of the action over the next few weeks. That will be followed by my tennis predictions and best bets for Day 4 on Thursday, August 29th. Keep reading for some of my favorite picks from this packed schedule. But that's not all. Gil Alexander will be posting his best bets every day on the VSiN picks page, and I'll be adding some additional plays there as well.
MORE DETAILS: Check out our Pro Picks page to see everything our experts are betting on.
2024 record: 737-729 (+29.64 units)
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs. Jack Draper
I also admire Draper's game, but I don't understand the respect he's getting in this match. The Brit should be able to beat Diaz Acosta, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it in straight sets. However, Diaz Acosta is capable of playing competitive tennis in each set and could easily cover this game spread.
Diaz Acosta has been described as a clay court specialist, which isn't too strange considering he's 15-9 on clay in the past 52 weeks. But there's no reason why the Argentine can't have success on hard courts at some point. Diaz Acosta plays aggressive tennis and I like the way he looks to go for the forehand on the court. Diaz Acosta is also pretty solid as a server, which is crucial in a bet like this. If he can get a few easy holds in each set, he should win enough games to cover here. He doesn't have to work too hard as a returner, but he definitely has the ability to put pressure on Draper's serve.
I know Draper just beat a tough opponent in ZZ Chan, but Diaz Acosta is a fighter and won't be easy to knock off the court. Also, while it should be cool on Thursday (76 degrees), it will be pretty humid in New York, which Draper has struggled with in the past.
Betting: Diaz Acosta +8.5 games (-147 – 2 units)
Daniel Evans vs Mariano Navone
Evans just finished the longest match in the history of the US Open. He lost to Karen Khachanov 6-7 (8), 7-6 (2), 7-6 (4), 4-6, 6-4 in 5 hours and 35 minutes. It was a very impressive result for the Briton. He should be lucky, as he prioritized playing for Great Britain at the Olympics over his ATP Tour ranking. But Evans has to face a very tough opponent in the second round, and I'm not sure if the Briton has what it takes to win the match.
Navonne is not a hard court player, but he has had decent results on hard courts recently. He played well in Cincinnati a few weeks ago in a loss to Jiri Rehecka, and in Winston-Salem in a 7-5, 6-3 loss to Junchen Xiang. Navonne then beat Daniel Altmaier 1-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 in his first match here. At just 23 years old, Navonne has clearly improved on hard courts, and now he faces an opponent with less power than his previous opponents, which should give Navonne an advantage in this matchup.
Navone isn't a great server, but he is an elite returner, which will give him plenty of opportunities to beat Evans, who doesn't serve as well in 2024. And overall, I think Navone will have the advantage from the baseline here. That being said, this is another place to add a player.
Bet: Navone ML (+102 – 2 units)
Max Purcell vs. Tommy Paul
Paul is expected to win this match pretty easily, but there is extra pressure that comes with it. The American is also a player who lets his guard down quite often. We saw that in his last match against Lorenzo Sonego. Paul was on his way to winning in straight sets, as he got a break in the third set and everything seemed fine. But suddenly Sonego broke back and took the third set. Paul didn't have to struggle much, as he was able to win in four sets. But with these mental weaknesses, it's hard to win in straight sets. And in situations like these, Paul could struggle against his opponent.
Purcell doesn't have as good an all-around game as Paul, but the Aussie has a strong serve and is an effective serve-and-volley player. So he should be able to get through some of these sets and have a chance to take one. That's why I'm playing him for a set spread. At some point, I think Purcell will break through and break Paul's serve, or the Aussie will win in a tiebreak.
Bet: Purcell to win the set (+103 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have many more plays listed on my Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season, so be sure to check it out. I'll probably add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you're looking for some action. I also list picks for Challenger level plays and lower level ATP and WTA events.
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