USA vs Serbia picks and predictions
In the Olympic semifinals, Team USA will face Nikola Jokic's Serbia. This will be the third meeting between these two teams this Olympic cycle. Team USA has held the upper hand in their previous meetings, with the odds for this match currently priced at 17.5. Can Serbia survive a close match or is they destined to just watch as the USA advances to the gold medal game?
Let's preview the match and make our predictions for USA vs. Serbia on Thursday, August 8th.
USA v Serbia preview: Edwards goes under
While the U.S. team has fielded some serious depth throughout the Olympics, the clear leader of this team remains LeBron James, who will run the offense and start the lineup, with Kerr sticking with Kevin Durant coming off the bench.
Throughout the Olympics, Team USA has faced very little resistance outside of Nikola Jokic's playing time. In the knockout rounds, Jokic played 31 minutes for Team USA, while the rest of the team was -26 in 9 minutes. As a result, I don't think the rotations Team USA employed accurately represent the actual pecking order of close games. I think LeBron James, July Holiday, and Kevin Durant should get more playing time here. Not only were these three players managed, they didn't have to play in overtime.
One player who will likely see a reduction in playing time is Anthony Edwards. Edwards is a good player, but his efficiency seems unsustainable. Despite playing the third-fewest minutes per game (17.7), he is putting up impressive numbers of 16.7 points per game on 63.3% shooting and 53.8% three-point shooting. This is mainly due to the fact that the offense is left to run for long periods of time by these large margins. The margin of victory in this game is 17.5 points, but I don't think that's indicative of the quality of either team. I would bet under 12.5 points (+105 Bet365).
USA vs. Serbia preview: Beyond Jokic, emergence
Serbia will be missing Nikola Jovic in their last match due to illness and will be hoping for his return, adding depth to their squad for this match. The key for Serbia in this match will be surviving without Jovic.
The main reason they struggled in their 110-84 loss to the USA in the knockout round was simply because they were the two games with the biggest difference in 3-point shooting. The USA shot a staggering 56.3% from 3-point range while Serbia shot just 24.3% from the field. Serbia is shooting 33.8% from 3-point range since that game while the USA is shooting 39.7%. The USA is shooting more and shooting a higher percentage, but the difference isn't that big. In a 26-point loss, the difference was 27 points from 3-point range.
Serbia also has the talent to give Team USA trouble. Jokic is the biggest mismatch problem for any team, and Bogdan Bogdanovic and Vasilije Micic can score with 3-pointers while also creating their own shot when needed. Serbia plays good team basketball, and the fundamentals are what will confuse Team USA.
Team USA vs. Serbia Prediction: Take the alternative of Serbia +11.5
Team USA vs. Serbia Predictions
The line has risen to 17.5 after being listed at 12.5 when these two teams met in the knockout round. Serbia jumped out to an early lead but was completely outplayed by the can't-miss Kevin Durant and LeBron James.
This Serbia team has the ability to not only strengthen but also refine their game plan by playing two games against the U.S. 17.5 is too many points to bet on the U.S., so I would take the Road Dogs to the point and the alternative at Serbia +11.5 (+200 BetMGM).
USA vs Serbia Prediction: Serbia +17.5
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