The North Korean contingent supporting Russia in the Ukraine war could be wiped out by April 2025, experts at the Institute for the Study of War predict. Losses on the front are counted in the tens of thousands a month, so Moscow needs more reinforcements.
The Pentagon and South Korean intelligence agencies estimate that about 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia since October on Kim Jong Un’s orders. At least 300 of them were killed and more than 1,000 injured.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that the new deployment of North Korean troops will maintain the current pace of infantry attacks in Kursk Oblast, but this will not last long.
See: Zelenskyy with offer to North Korean leader. The Kremlin responded
The losses can amount to between 30,000 and 45,000 zlotys. soldiers per month – total of dead and wounded. This means that if this pace continues, the entire force could be wiped out by mid-April this year.
If Moscow wants to maintain its current momentum, it must seek additional support.
North Korea’s military losses will increase. additional power required
As The New York Times has learned, the Pentagon announced that additional North Korean troops will arrive in Russia “within the next two months,” or by mid-March of this year.
As the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper reminded, recruits traditionally take about a month in November before being sent for further exercises behind the front lines, and do not take part in regular military operations until December. It was after that.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff reported in December that North Korea may be preparing to commit additional troops to Ukraine and rotate or deploy military equipment to Russia.
See also: North Korean soldier dies on the front line. “The family was forbidden to cry.”
According to ISW analysts, if Russia does not change the way North Korea operates its military, the new forces will soon share the fate of the old ones.
“It is unlikely that these new North Korean forces will be able to significantly improve Russian operations and will probably have to face heavy losses similar to the current North Korean forces,” the expert emphasizes.
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