The weather won't spoil us on All Saints Day. The days when many of us visit the graves of loved ones will be windy. The temperature on November 1 should not disappoint us, but Zaduski will be much colder, and parts of Poland will also experience rain and snow. Arleta Unton-Piziolek writes about the latest calculations of meteorological models.
The first day of November is considered in meteorology as the symbolic beginning of the so-called end of autumn, the cold and dark season. In previous decades, All Saints' Day and All Souls' Day were times when temperatures dropped below zero degrees Celsius and winter clothing was worn for the first time. However, with climate change, a lot has changed, because in the 21st century, the beginning of this month is usually sunny and very hot. The last time the temperature dropped below 0 degrees on the morning of November 1, 2021. A few years ago, when in 2019, the temperature in Lubuski and Western Pomeranian regions warmed by only 3-6 degrees, but in 2009, when the morning temperature was negative almost all over the country, it was very cold. it is cold from 1 to 6 degrees, it warms up to 2-7 degrees during the day.
And this year, the first calculations of the model predicted a mild beginning in November, and at one point it turned into a significant cold. However, according to the latest forecasts of the American GFS and ECMWF models, it is clear that it will not be bad. But the cold gulf is still hiding over the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean and does not allow it to pass. On All Saints' Day, the weather in Poland will be shaped by high pressure centered in the English Channel, but a large low pressure vortex will enter the continent from the north, centered over Finland and northwest in the first day of the month with a pressure of 970 hectopascals.
High and low pressure locations for Friday, November 1 DWD
Weather on All Saints Day
This low pressure system is associated with a strong cold front, which pushes cold from the Arctic towards central and eastern Europe. The hardest hit should be directed at Scandinavia and Russia, and Poland will only get out of this cold. Therefore, Friday is expected to be cloudy in Poland, with light rain and fog and mist in the afternoon, especially in the south. It is expected to warm up to 10-11 degrees in Podlasie, 13 degrees in the center, and 15-16 degrees in Malopolska and Podkarpacie.
However, the first signs of the coming changes are already appearing. During the day, the northern regions of Poland are covered by a cold front, which sometimes rains up to 5 liters per square meter. It is expected that the wind will intensify from the west and will blow at 50-60 kilometers per hour in the southern part of the country and up to 70-90 kilometers per hour in the afternoon in the north. This is to reduce the feeling of temperature and unfortunately it creates danger in the afternoon and evening.
Weather forecast for November 1 tvnmeteo.pl
The forecast for the departure from normal temperatures on the evening of November 1 is positive, only in the north GFS/tropicaltidbits is negative.
Temperature forecast for the next days ventusky.com
It may snow
On the night of November 1-2, a front movement of up to 1-5 liters of rain is expected over our country from north to south, and snow and snow will fall in the northeast. It will be considerably colder on Saturday, which is evident in the forecast for a deviation from the negative temperature norm in the afternoon across Poland. It is expected to warm up to 5-6 degrees in Podlasie, 9 degrees in the center and 10-11 degrees in the west and south-west. The wind blows from the north-west direction and from the north-east direction at a speed of 50-60 km/h. The sky should be clear in some places. Only the north-eastern regions are covered by a thick layer of clouds and it is raining and snowing continuously.
In the light of the latest forecast materials, the weather of November, which is known from the stories of the night of our ancestors, as they used to say, will not treat us very badly. At least for the first part of Friday, when the storm is just starting.
Weather for November 2 tvnmeteo.pl
In the afternoon of November 2, temperatures are forecast to deviate from normal minus GFS/tropicaltidbits
Rainfall forecast for the next few days ventusky.com
Main image source: AdobeStock, GFS/tropicaltidbits
