Not only did the Carolina Panthers struggle with a 2-15 record in 2023, they were also the worst team in the NFL against the spread. The NFC South struggled overall in 2023 with the Panthers going 4-11 with two ties. The Falcons were 5-12 against the spread, the Saints were 6-10 with one ties and the Buccaneers were the only team in the division to turn a profit at 12-7. Does this mean we should fade the NFC South again in our 2024 NFL spread picks or are we seeing a reversion to the mean?
The latest Week 1 NFL odds have the Saints favored by four points over the Panthers, which could make them a popular choice for bettors as they put together their Week 1 NFL parlay picks: Before making any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to check out SportsLine Senior Analyst Larry Hartstein's opinion.
Hartstein, a former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, combines his vast network of Las Vegas sources with the analytical approach he honed at Pro Football Focus. He is 53-34-3 ATS and tied for 52nd (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas Supercontest. Hartstein's weekly Las Vegas contest picks are the basis for his NFL Best Bets column, which has him 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since the start of 2022. Anyone who follows him is pretty high on the list.
For Week 1, Hartstein is confident in his three best bets, which have payouts of nearly 6 to 1 if his predictions are correct. You can get Hartstein's Week 1 NFL predictions exclusively at SportsLine.
NFL Week 1 Top Picks
It's fair to say Hartstein expects the Browns (-2.5) to cover the Cowboys. It's been a drama-filled offseason for Dallas, with Dak Prescott, Mike McCarthy and CeeDee Lamb all seeking contract extensions after winning the NFC East last season.
Now they'll face a tough matchup against a dynamic Browns defense. Cleveland ranked No. 1 in total defense in 2023 and was dominant on third downs, allowing opponents to convert just 29.1% of the time (best in the NFL). Dallas was 1-4 against the spread in its final five games last season, but Cleveland covered it in four of six games, which is a big reason Hartstein is including the Browns in his Week 1 NFL parlay. See more NFL parlay picks here.
How to make an NFL Week 1 parlay
Hartstein also bet on two other NFL matchups, backing one team he says is “poised to do great. ” See Hartstein's best NFL bets and parlays for Week 1 exclusively at SportsLine.
What are Hartstein's top NFL picks for Week 1, and what other NFL matchups should you target for a 6-to-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to find out the answers by looking at the best Week 1 NFL bets from the Las Vegas expert, who's been earning 25.95 units on ATS picks since 2022.
