European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (left) and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (right) stand side by side for a family photo at the UK Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Summit at Bletchley Park in central England on November 2, 2023.
Daniel Leal | AFP | Getty Images
Vice President Kamala Harris is set to take to the stage at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday to deliver what is likely to be the biggest political speech of her career.
While the 59-year-old Harris is expected to explain her vision and policy agenda to the American people, many in Europe will also be curious to know what her presidency would mean for transatlantic relations.
Harris, who rose to the top of the Democratic field after President Joe Biden ended her campaign last month, is set to face off against Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump in November.
If Harris wins, she would take a broadly similar approach to Biden's policy platform, with some nuances on key international issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war, political analysts told CNBC.
Europe is under no illusions that a Democrat winning the White House will mean the United States will meet all of the continent's security needs or transform its industrial policy.
Suda David Wilp
Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States
Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit hope a Harris presidency would bring continuity to foreign policy.
“This means gradual reductions in military aid to Ukraine rather than sharp cuts to force peace talks as would be expected under a Donald Trump administration, a maintained tough stance on China but without Trump's threat of immediate tariff hikes, and continued efforts to balance support for Israel with de-escalation of the Gaza war,” EIU analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteriti told CNBC in an email.
“While Harris has not criticized Biden on these issues, she is likely to shift her messaging on these issues, including highlighting the humanitarian crisis in Gaza,” they added.
Ukraine, Israel, China
Francesco Nicoli, an assistant professor of political science at Italy's Politecnico di Turin, said the current convergence between the United States and the European Union is likely to continue under Harris when it comes to areas such as trade, artificial intelligence, big tech companies and climate policy.
“We expect a Harris-Waltz president to take bolder action on Ukraine than a Biden presidency,” Nikoli told CNBC in an email.
“Without fundamentally changing the 'red line' approach that has limited US assistance to Ukraine thus far, the new Democratic candidate is likely to take a somewhat more liberal approach that would give Ukraine the tools to push and test those red lines,” he continued. “Waltz, in particular, has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine.”
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (R) and Minnesota Governor and Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz during a campaign event at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, Tuesday, August 20, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Nikoli, who is also a visiting fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said a Harris presidency was unlikely to dramatically change the transatlantic approach to international issues such as Israel and China.
He said the EU's executive arm, the European Commission, would likely hail any compromise between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas as a success “as long as it ends the war,” noting that the EU seemed “content to hand the lead in negotiations to the United States.”
CNBC reached out to a European Commission spokesperson on Thursday but they were not immediately available for comment.
“Similarly, I have little doubt that the EU would respond swiftly and coherently if China launched an all-out invasion of Taiwan, but the EU is currently too divided on China to be a reliable partner for the United States in the absence of open conflict,” Nikoli said.
“The EU is likely to continue its piecemeal industrial policy, which may be seen as anti-China in negotiations with a future US president, but is in fact likely to be as much against the US as against China. A Harris presidency would be no different to this,” he added.
Leslie Binjamuri, director of the US and Americas programme at Chatham House, said Harris was in the “difficult position of being vice president and advocating for foreign policy” but was likely to embrace a similar foreign policy consensus as Biden.
“I know she is a passionate advocate for Palestinian lives, and we will likely see a bigger difference in this area,” Bin Jamuri told CNBC in an email.
“But remember what former President[Barack]Obama said: 'America can't be the world's policeman, but we can be a force for good.' That's the party's position and that's probably what Harris will be as well,” she added.
Security Needs and Industrial Policy
Suda David Wilp, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a U.S. think tank, said in a recent blog post that a Harris victory in November would “give Europe the breathing space to strengthen its defenses and adapt to the new realities of U.S.-EU relations.”
“Certainly there will be some continuity in terms of ideals, actions and advisors from the Biden administration to President Kamala Harris,” David Wilp said.
“But Europe is under no illusion that a Democrat winning the White House will mean that the United States will meet all of the continent's security needs and transform its industrial policy.”
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (L) shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting on the sidelines of the Ukraine Peace Summit in the luxury resort of Bürgenstock near Lucerne, June 15, 2024.
Alessandro Della Valle | AFP | Getty Images
David Wilp said that rather than “wracking his brains” over President Biden's signature inflation-fighting legislation, the EU should focus on working with the US to protect supply chains from economic weaponisation and mobilise more capital and research at home to deliver breakthroughs in areas such as AI and green energy.
“Harris is unlikely to upset transatlantic relations, but her foreign policy focus will naturally be on China first, as well as addressing the immediate crises in the Middle East and on the US southern border, issues that are more relevant to US domestic politics,” she added.
