(Bloomberg) — Chicago wheat futures were on track to rise for a second straight week after a series of reports that Europe’s harvest was shrinking.
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Strategy Grains has cut its 2024-2025 EU soft wheat harvest forecast by 5 percent due to lower production in France and Germany. The French Agriculture Ministry said on Friday it expects the country's soft wheat production to be 25 percent lower than the five-year average. SovEcon has also cut its forecast for Russia's 2024 wheat harvest by 2 percent.
Egypt is seeking to buy up to 3.8 million tonnes of wheat in an unusually large tender on Monday, while Algeria also announced a tender earlier this week. Analysts at CRM said in a note that the tenders “highlight the willingness of many importers to buy at current levels.”
Traders are also keeping an eye on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly crop report, due for release on Monday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the department to raise its forecast for U.S. wheat production for the 2024 crop by 0.4 percent to 2.02 billion bushels.
“There is some short covering ahead of the USDA report on Monday,” said Marex analyst Charlie Cernatinger. “Additionally, increased talk of a poor French harvest and a shortage of French exports is also helping.”
He said stocks typically rise in September after seasonal lows in the last two weeks of August, and investors are starting to take on some buying positions to test the trend.
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