Recently, artificial intelligence and how it will change the nature of warfare has become a top priority when discussing the future of military power.
But within the Department of Defense and the military services, AI ambitions are not aligned with current budgetary realities.
All of the Defense Department's deficiencies can rarely be fixed with a budget increase, but troops are bought.
As a former Chief of Naval Operations and former member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a continuing participant in non-governmental dialogue in Asia, including with China, I have followed China's impressive military growth.
While Chinese ships, aircraft and technology are not as superior as ours, they are buying more and improving rapidly. Dialogue agendas and discussions have also evolved to include transformative technologies with AI in mind. There is no doubt that as we move deeper into the AI modernization wars, Beijing is buying and doubling down on that front.
A few years ago, the Air Force and Navy began developing new sixth-generation AI-enabled fighter jets to outpace those being developed by China.
The project has since split into two approaches: the F/A-XX for the Navy and the Next Generation Air Dominance System (NGAD) for the Air Force. One is land-launched, the other sea-launched, but both have the same goal: to maintain global dominance in the air and help the U.S. become the first nation to achieve true AI-enabled air warfare. The only way to achieve that is to create these two new AI combat systems.
But the Fiscal Responsibility Act passed by Congress last year has shackled the US military budget. The Navy and Air Force are now in limbo. In March, the Navy deferred a full $1 billion budget for the F/A-XX system. The Air Force has also warned that it may be forced to make “tough decisions” about NGAD, including potentially ending the program altogether.
This must not happen. China is already catching up with the US militarily. China's new fighter jet system will be ready by 2035. If the US does not move forward fully, US air superiority will be in jeopardy.
The AI race is on, and it will shape the future of warfare. The global military AI market is currently close to $9 billion and is expected to approach $25 billion by 2032. China and its malevolent neighbors want China to become the dominant player in AI. Slowing or pausing American AI combat modernization initiatives like F/A-XX and NGAD will help them achieve that goal.
Bold commitments ring hollow as transformation programs are phased and postponed. The delayed outcomes and lack of real urgency please Beijing, which has set 2035 as the completion date for military modernization. The Defense Department, especially the Air Force and Navy, must be budgeted to rapidly deliver these critical systems. As Congress works to build our common defense, it must deliver these critical programs with the funding necessary to win the military AI race, because there is no second place in war.
In many ways, China is already ahead of the curve: Beijing's approach to military-civilian integration is alive and well, and the infrastructure, technologies and processes that have made China the manufacturing capital of the world also facilitate the rapid delivery and improvement of military capabilities.
This phenomenon can also be seen in the maritime domain: Between 2015 and 2020, the Chinese Navy (the People's Liberation Army Navy) surpassed the US Navy in size, and the gap continues to grow.
The Office of Naval Intelligence assesses that China's shipbuilding capabilities far exceed those of the United States, due to its much larger military and commercial shipbuilding industry. According to the Defense Department's China Power Report, the Chinese Navy added 30 ships last year, while the United States added just two. This trend is likely to continue as China cuts submarine purchases for 2025 and delays other shipbuilding programs.
The situation of the U.S. Air Force is not much better. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee in March, Admiral John Aquilino (then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command) said, “The world's largest Navy will soon become the world's largest Air Force,” and that “the gravity, scope and scale of this security challenge cannot be underestimated.”
He is right: China produces 100 J-20 fighter jets a year, while the US produces around 135 F-35s, of which only 60-70 are in service with the Air Force. This, like shipbuilding, is the secret to its second place.
This is about more than just numbers; it's about the jobs, the skills, and the countless businesses that contribute to these incredible machines and the technology behind them. If we can't sustain American industry, we stand to lose it.
Gary Roughead is a former United States Navy officer who served as the 29th Chief of Naval Operations from 2007 to 2011. Previously, he served as Commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command from May 17, 2007 to September 29, 2007.
