With Russia's war in Ukraine showing no signs of ending, Western leaders are warning of a possible escalation of tensions on the international stage.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested Europe is now in a “pre-war era.” Joe Biden supported US aid to Ukraine and alluded to the “cost of unchecked tyranny.” “But restraining tyranny comes at a price, and unfortunately, young people in the West don't seem ready to pay that price,” said Politico's Jamie Dettmer.
NATO nations, including those bordering Ukraine, are struggling to recruit and maintain their troops. “You can't do anything without people. Modernizing your equipment is all a waste of money if you don't have qualified and motivated personnel,” Czech military commander Gen. Karel Leka told Reuters.
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All sorts of recruitment strategies have been employed across the region, from talk of reinstating conscription in Romania to military-themed television shows set to air in Hungary before the end of the year.
But even the most successful recruiting campaigns are struggling to target another of Europe's military bottlenecks: “It's no longer about recruiting new soldiers, but about persuading existing ones not to quit,” Politico said.
European countries have been missing their recruitment targets for some time now. Between 2013 and 2023, the number of active duty troops in the French army fell by 8.26%. The UK saw an even more dramatic decline of 14.63% over the same period, according to the Financial Times. In fact, “the UK has missed its recruitment targets every year of the past decade.”
It's not necessarily soldiers on the front line that are the problem: Most “headline figures” showing troop declines exclude “vital 'pinch-point' skilled jobs” in fields such as medicine, communications, engineering and cybersecurity that are “particularly vulnerable to shortages,” the Financial Times noted. “It is these jobs that European armies are most urgently in need of replacements.”
Many people simply “don't see an imminent threat yet,” The Economist said, which is a problem for militaries desperately trying to recruit and retain troops. To significantly increase troop numbers, or to convince the public of any conscription, “you need a clear, shared understanding of why it's necessary. Countries like Britain and France lack this, and it's not clear what conscripts would be able to do in modern, technologically sophisticated armies.”
Moreover, “challenges in the military sector” including “quality of life, relocation, overseas assignments, uncertainty and chance of death” are causing problems in recruiting and retaining service members. Changing values and an ageing population mean “you have to offer very high salaries to persuade people to volunteer and join the military,” Vincenzo Bove, professor of politics at the University of Warwick in the UK, told Euronews.
What next?
For European militaries to prepare for war with Russia, they first “need to get the basics right,” the Financial Times said. While high-tech weaponry is being replaced and upgraded, basic facilities like troop housing often fall into disrepair.
“Further experimentation with recruitment practices that appeal to changing demographics is also needed, for example a one-year probationary period that can be combined with university study or other training,” The Economist said. “Despite much talk, few armies are doing enough to recruit women or tackle sexual harassment.”
Countries such as Norway and Sweden have had success with a hybrid selective conscription system seen as the “Scandinavian model”, but preparing for the worst-case scenario will require “a broader view of how to make military careers more attractive”, the Financial Times said.
“To deter our most dangerous enemies, we need to prepare for wars we don't want to fight,” The Economist said. “Just ask the brave Ukrainians.”
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