ASEAN-China dialogue is widely seen as a key component of Southeast Asian diplomatic relations, playing a key role in promoting economic cooperation and addressing security challenges. However, despite notable progress in managing tensions, particularly in the volatile South China Sea, there are significant obstacles to achieving lasting peace and stability in the region.
The effectiveness of the ASEAN-China dialogue largely depends on ASEAN's ability to maintain its centrality and unity while navigating the complex dynamics involving China and other major powers. Despite the bright prospects for such a dialogue, concerns have been raised about its effectiveness in ensuring the much-needed long-term peace and stability in Southeast Asia.
The origins of the ASEAN-China dialogue date back to the early 1990s, when both sides recognized the potential for mutual benefits from enhanced economic, political and security cooperation. Over time, the dialogue has significantly broadened in scope, moving from a primarily economic partnership to a comprehensive effort covering a range of areas, including regional security, cultural exchanges and environmental protection. This deepening dialogue has played a key role in promoting trust and cooperation between ASEAN and China, especially in areas where their interests overlap. However, the dialogue has become increasingly complex, posing challenges in addressing member states' competing interests and the broader geopolitical context.
The biggest sticking point in the ASEAN-China dialogue are the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea. These disputes, which involve several ASEAN countries and China, are a constant source of tension and a major obstacle to regional stability. China's extensive claims over the South China Sea and its growing military presence in the region have raised concerns not only among affected ASEAN countries but also other regional powers such as the United States and Japan.
The militarization of the South China Sea has significantly increased the risk of conflict and requires an urgent response through ASEAN-China dialogue to effectively maintain peace in Southeast Asia. To address tensions in the South China Sea, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China are engaged in extensive negotiations to establish a Code of Conduct (COC).
The COC's main objective is to provide a comprehensive framework for managing disputes and preventing confrontations peacefully. The agreement is widely seen as potentially transformative as it could significantly reduce the risk of confrontation in the South China Sea while also serving as a platform for the peaceful resolution of disputes. However, negotiations face challenges due to diverging interests among ASEAN member states and China's reluctance to commit to legally binding provisions that could impose restrictions on its activities in the region.
Despite these obstacles, the successful completion of the COC negotiations would be seen as a notable achievement for ASEAN-China dialogue and could establish a valuable precedent for conflict resolution elsewhere in the region.
In addition to the South China Sea issue, economic cooperation has emerged as a key focus in ASEAN-China dialogue. The two countries have a deep-rooted economic interdependence that has been further strengthened by initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest free trade agreement. This economic interdependence has a stabilizing influence on ASEAN-China relations, as both countries have strong incentives to maintain a peaceful and cooperative relationship. However, it is important to recognize that deepening economic ties also comes with inherent risks, especially as China's economic influence continues to expand across Southeast Asia. There are growing concerns that this influence could generate political influence that could undermine the autonomy of ASEAN member states and the overall unity of the organization.
Security cooperation plays an important role in ASEAN-China dialogue and contributes greatly to regional stability through cooperation in areas such as counter-terrorism, maritime security, disaster management, etc. These joint efforts have effectively promoted trust and cooperation between ASEAN and China.
However, the effectiveness of these measures to promote peace and stability depends on the broader geopolitical context, particularly the strategic rivalry between China and the U.S. To maintain its central role in regional security dialogue, ASEAN must navigate the competing interests of these great powers carefully and strike a delicate balance between engaging with China and maintaining strong ties with the U.S. and other regional actors.
The strategy that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is implementing to balance its relations with China and other major powers is crucial to efforts to maintain peace and stability in Southeast Asia. This strategy, known as “ASEAN centrality,” recognizes ASEAN as an impartial and inclusive organization best suited to manage the region's complex geopolitical situation and prevent conflict. However, ASEAN centrality faces challenges as internal divisions within ASEAN and external influence from major powers threaten its coherence and effectiveness. These challenges are particularly evident in the dispute over the South China Sea, where ASEAN member states have struggled to present a unified position in negotiations with China.
The prospects for peace and stability in Southeast Asia through ASEAN-China dialogue are both promising and complicated. On the one hand, there are reasons for optimism. The ongoing Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations in the South China Sea, if successful, could establish a robust framework for managing disputes and preventing clashes. Moreover, growing economic ties between ASEAN and China provide strong incentives for both sides to maintain peaceful relations. On the other hand, various challenges, including unresolved territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the increasing militarization of the region, and broader strategic rivalry between China and the United States, pose significant threats to regional stability.
In conclusion, the ASEAN-China dialogue serves as an important platform for tension management and cooperation in Southeast Asia. However, it does not guarantee absolute peace and stability in the region. The dialogue has made notable contributions to regional stability by addressing South China Sea disputes and promoting economic cooperation.
However, the success of these efforts depends on several factors, including the resolution of key issues such as the Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations, ASEAN's ability to maintain its unity and centrality, and broader geopolitical dynamics in the region. As Southeast Asia faces a complex and unpredictable strategic environment, ASEAN-China dialogue will need to adapt and evolve to meet these challenges. Maintaining peace and stability in Southeast Asia will require not only successful ASEAN-China dialogue, but also a broader commitment to multilateralism, cooperation, and adherence to the rule of law. To overcome these challenges, ASEAN and China must continue to work on peaceful dispute resolution and strengthening regional institutions, so that Southeast Asia continues to be characterized by peace, stability, and prosperity amid a volatile global situation.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own.
References
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