Kamala Harris's background does not suggest any special engagement or affinity with Europe. Her professional background indicates occasional involvement in foreign affairs in general and Europe in particular. She has not held a single press conference since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate three weeks ago, nor has she released any details of her future policy. So we don't really know her personal plans regarding US European policy. We can only infer from the choices of the Biden-Harris administration. The possible new policy will not be a boon for Europe.
Kamala was born on the Pacific coast of the United States to an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, and went to school in Canada and the United States before working in various roles in California, primarily in law enforcement.
She became a senator in 2017 at age 52. She served on committees that focused on domestic issues, except for the Select Committee on Intelligence. She joined the Caucus on Asian Pacific American, Black and Women's Issues.
As vice president since 2021, she had two specific duties: border czar and AI czar, both of which had foreign policy aspects but were not exclusive to Europe. Harris also attended the Munich Security Conference, where she delivered a speech outlining the administration's policies.
The best way to predict the Harris administration's European policy is to extrapolate it from the policy actions of the Biden-Harris administration.
In contrast to the Trump administration, the Biden administration announced from day one that it would be friendly with US allies. But apparently, this has not always been the case. European allies were furious that the Biden administration did not properly consult them before its sudden and disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, forcing European civilians, government officials and local staff to be hastily evacuated. This is one of the few diplomatic decisions in which Harris can claim to have played a key role. In fact, Harris claims to have been the last person in the room before President Biden decided to withdraw.
The biggest problem for Europe right now is the war in Ukraine, but there is no sign that VP Harris opposed President Biden's policy. Let's look back at the policy. Biden did not prevent Russia from starting the war. His comments that Russia's “small-scale aggression” in Ukraine may not require a US response, as well as his disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, must have emboldened President Putin. Once the war began, the Biden-Harris administration hesitated to give Ukraine the weapons it needed to defend itself. The administration has no clear vision of its strategic objectives. Biden and Harris seem only willing to “support” Ukraine's war, which is in stark contrast to Trump's vision of a quick end to the fighting.
Another priority for Europe is energy. The Biden-Harris administration tried to distance itself from President Trump's policies by first lifting sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. President Trump tried to block the pipeline, claiming that it would increase Europe's dependence on Russian energy and undermine the security of Poland and Ukraine. This was also absurd. European countries were asking the United States to protect the continent from Russia, but at the same time they were enriching and strengthening Russia through energy imports. The Biden-Harris administration reversed course less than a year after Putin invaded Ukraine. But the signal of weakness and inconsistency was received favorably by Moscow. Putin sensed the Biden-Harris administration's machinations and, thinking he could gamble on a war in Europe, invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
This pattern of policies signaling weakness continued with Iran. The Biden-Harris Administration reversed the Trump Administration’s policy of maximum pressure and suspended enforcement of economic sanctions against Iran. Since the Biden-Harris Administration took office, Iran has received $100 billion in economic benefits from newly permitted oil exports. Emboldened and enriched, Iran has expanded its nuclear program. It has also armed and trained Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The first two threaten European security by increasing the risk of war in the nearby Middle East, and the Houthis pose a threat to global and European shipping. The Biden-Harris Administration’s reversal of the Trump Administration’s designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization in 2021 and redesignation in 2024 have made matters worse.
On energy policy, the Biden-Harris administration dealt a blow to Europe in an election year with its decision to halt construction of an LNG export terminal in the United States, a concession to environmental groups. The administration also tried to block LNG exports, but was blocked by a federal judge. Buying gas from the United States would help Europe break away from its reliance on Russia.
Further economic stimulus was the misnamed Inflation and Recovery Act (IRA), which shocked Europe. As President of the Senate, Vice President Harris voted for and passed the IRA bill. The Biden-Harris administration criticized Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on European countries, provoking a backlash from Europe. The administration suspended the tariffs, but then came the shock: the IRA gave $369 billion in government aid to the US clean energy industry. Europe viewed these US subsidies as hostile “Buy American” trade measures and countered with its own Green Deal subsidies.
And then there is China. A year ago, at the summit of Southeast Asian countries in Jakarta, Vice President Harris declared that “managing relations with China is not about decoupling.” The Biden-Harris administration and the European Commission have agreed to define relations with China by the three “Cs”: cooperation, competition, and conflict. As one of us has argued, they are one-third right. Relations with China are defined by inevitable conflict. The United States should rather take the lead on the issue that defines our era and call for decoupling until China stops its malign behavior, especially as China supports Russia in its war of aggression in Europe. Former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said just that in a recent article.
With no answers coming from press conferences or policy statements, we can only speculate on what Harris' European policy will be, but we can say this much: if she continues the Biden-Harris policy, neither Americans nor Europeans will be better off.
Dan Negrea served as Senior Advisor in the Secretary of State's Office of Policy Planning and Special Representative for Commerce and Business at the U.S. Department of State. He is co-author of We Win They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War.
Stefano Graziosi is an essayist and political analyst who writes for the Italian newspaper La Verita and the weekly magazine Panorama.
Image: Jo Bouroch / Shutterstock.com.
