Neither the Yankees nor the Nationals have favored facing left-handed pitchers this year, so MLB experts are estimating the under to be high.
August 28, 2024 • 16:02 ET • 4 min read
The New York Yankees' hot streak stalled somewhat on Tuesday in a 4-2 loss to the Washington Nationals, when they struggled to get anything done offensively, but on Wednesday, with Carlos Rodon on the mound opposite MacKenzie Gore, the Yankees will have a chance to secure another series victory.
It's well-known that New York has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, so don't expect much from a lineup that was thwarted by another lefty just 24 hours ago, and the Nationals' offense is still below average against all hands.
In my Yankees vs Nationals predictions and MLB picks for August 28th, I expect very few runs to be generated and Aaron Judge to struggle a bit.
Yankees vs Nationals predictions
My best bet
9 and under (-106 on FanDuel)
My Analysis
The New York Yankees still lead the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but are much worse in the reverse split, ranking 13th in the majors with a wRC+ of just 106. They have higher strikeout numbers in this split despite masking those issues with walk numbers, but the big differentiator would be the 40-point difference in Isolated Power.
This should be a good situation for MacKenzie Gore. Gore has struggled to keep hits down all season, but his .402 expected slugging percentage is just a few points above league average. He has a 24.4% strikeout rate in his two and a half seasons at this level, suggesting he has the ability to strike out batters, and if he can target fly balls he should be able to shut New York up like Patrick Corbin did a year ago.
Like its performance against right-handed pitchers, New York ranks in the top three in the league in OPS against pitchers who hit ground balls, but is well outside the top 10 against pitchers who hit fly balls.
But the same can be said for the Washington Nationals, who are 27th in wRC+ against lefties and 17th in wRC+ against lefties. Many of their go-to hitters are lefties, but without Lane Thomas, they don't have a true lefty to keep the team afloat, and Alex Cole, who was a bright spot in the second half of the season, is out with a season-ending foot injury.
Washington hasn't struck out a lot this year and, like many contact-oriented groups, has favored pitchers that hit ground balls, and Carlos Rodon is an extreme fly pitcher who attacks the strike zone hard, and I think he'll get a lot of outs with air pitches against a team that's short on manpower and already at a platoon disadvantage.
I'm rooting for both pitchers to play a relatively quiet game.
Aaron Judge Prop
My best bet
Aaron Judge under 2.5H+R+RBI (+105 on DraftKings)
My Analysis
While the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitchers, the same can't be said for Aaron Judge. The big man is hitting an astounding .316 with a split and is isolating .456 power, while drawing walks in 26.6% of those at-bats and boasting a high strikeout rate.
Gore has a decent record in the strikeout department, but I want to highlight his walks here because he is poor in that department and Judge has walked as much as anyone. I expect Judge to walk at least once here, so it might be hard to get hits. Also, the Yankees have a really bad record against lefties, so I'm not sure he'll be able to score runs or provide any RBI in this game. He's too expensive in some markets, so you'll just have to play this one.
Yankees vs Nationals Same Game Parlay (SGP)
Under 9 years old
Mackenzie Gore 5+ strikeouts
Aaron Judge: 0.5+ walks
Left-handed starting pitchers have been fun against the Yankees this year, with two straight lefties recording at least five strikeouts since the start of the series and that should continue into the third series with Gore out.
Sure, his strikeout rate isn't what we'd hoped for heading into this game, but Gore has faced six batters in two of his past four starts, and the Yankees have a favorable situation for a team that is up a percentage point in strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers. With a lot of batters in this lineup and Gore expected to continue pitching a lot of innings, he'll likely strike out five and come home.
Also, as expected, I think Judge will go for the walk here given what I said above. His 26.6% walk rate against lefties over the course of most of the season is a laughable number, and Gore has walked just over 9% of the batters he's faced this year, including an ignominious 10 walks in 20 2/3 innings this month.
Learn how to bet on parlays on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Nationals odds
Yankees vs Nationals live odds
Yankees vs Nationals opening odds
Money Line: New York -195 | Washington +155 Run Line: New York -1.5 (-130) | Washington +1.5 (+105) Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Yankees vs. Nationals Money Line and Over/Under Analysis
The Nationals started this game as +155 underdogs, but the home team underdog line has risen to +170. On DraftKings, New York is taking 88% of the bets and 86% of the moneyline. The total remains at the starting number 9, but is trending back up toward 9.5 after an early move on the under. Here, only 46% of tickets are bet on the over, but 90% of the money is flowing in that direction.
Yankees vs. Nationals Trends
The Yankees have won the over in 59 of their last 98 games (+17.65 units / 16% ROI). Let's take a look at more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Nationals.
Yankees vs Nationals game info
Location: Nationals Park, Washington DC Date and Time: Wednesday, August 28, 2024 First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET TV: YES, MASN Yankees Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon
(14-8, 4.16 ERA) Nationals starting pitcher: Mackenzie Gore
(7 wins, 11 losses, ERA 4.51)
Latest injuries for Yankees vs. Nationals
Yankees vs. Nationals Weather
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