Aaron Judge has had a commanding win over Tarik Skubal in the past, and MLB betting projections suggest Skubal's recent pitching tendencies could favor Judge.
August 18, 2024 • 12:10 ET • 4 min read
It's a new edition of Sunday Night Baseball as the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers complete a three-game series, and it's also a special game at Journey Bank Ballpark in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, home of the Little League World Series.
The situation remains the same in New York. The Bombers remain in a fierce AL East battle with the Baltimore Orioles. They are looking to do something they've rarely done before: target Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal. But the impressive left-hander may have other plans.
What's the best bet here? Read our free Yankees vs Tigers predictions and MLB picks for August 18.
Yankees vs Tigers predictions
My best bet
Aaron Judge – Total base over 1.5 (+100 on bet365)
Best odds available in your area
My Analysis
Looking at this matchup, one thing stands out: Aaron Judge.
Judge is coming off an impressive win over Tarik Skubal. In 11 career plate appearances against the impressive left-hander, Judge has a 1.637 OPS with two home runs and two RBIs. Admittedly, it's a small sample size, but the data here makes sense.
Judge is one of the best hitters when facing left-handed pitchers, especially when it comes to power against them. He jumped to second overall among qualified players in isolated power against left-handed pitchers and was just behind in hard-hit rate. This doesn't bode well for Skubal, no matter how well he's played this season.
Another thing that stands out here is how much Skubal relies on his fastball — pitch versatility has been key to his success, but he's come to rely more on it as of late.
In his past three starts with the Detroit Tigers, this style of pitching has made up nearly 45% of his arsenal, and not only is Judge one of the best fastball hitters in baseball, he's also among the best in runs scored, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
I would put this number at around -140 today. A talented pitcher who could have a very impressive day gives this number some value. In some ways, this will be a battle of the best vs the best, but I will always pick Judge in this matchup as he is the more proven player. This is even more true as the New York Yankees slugger comes into this matchup coming off a relatively quiet two games.
Yankees vs Tigers Same Game Parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge: 1.5+ total bases
Austin Wells: 1.5+ strikeouts
My best bet would be Austin Wells with a strikeout count of 1.5 or more. I'm a big fan of this matchup for a few reasons, but the biggest reason is that it's a direct matchup of strengths and weaknesses.
The pitch that has produced the most whiffs from Skubal this season is his changeup. His whiff rate is around 40%, which is among the best in the league. Wells has struggled mightily with the pitch this season, ranking second on the Yankees in strikeout rate and third in strikeout rate. I expect him to whiff a lot tonight.
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Yankees vs Tigers odds
Yankees vs Tigers live odds
Yankees vs Tigers opening odds
Run Line: New York -1.5 (+155) | Detroit +1.5 (-188) Money Line: New York -106 | Detroit -110 Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs. Tigers spread and over/under analysis
Up until yesterday, New York was on a healthy winning streak against the Tigers. The Yankees had won four straight head-to-head games against the Tigers. Despite being .500 over their last 10 games, New York has lost just over two units from bettors over that span. Meanwhile, the Tigers have been the most profitable team in baseball over this span. They have won seven of their last 10 games, and bettors have recently made just over seven units on Detroit. Another thing that has been profitable for the Tigers over this span is the under. The under has been right in seven of their last 10 games, and most of those wins have been easy.
Yankees vs Tigers Trends
The Yankees have won the over in 50 of their last 78 games (+20.85 units / 24% ROI). See more Yankees vs Tigers MLB betting trends.
Yankees vs Tigers game info
Location: Journeybank Ballpark, Historic Bowman Field, Williamsport, Pennsylvania Date: Sunday, August 18, 2024 First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET TV: ESPN Yankees Starting Pitcher: Marcus Stroman
(8-6, 4.01 ERA) Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal
(13 wins, 4 losses, 2.57 ERA)
Latest injuries for Yankees vs. Tigers
Yankees vs Tigers Weather
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