We can seriously talk about entering the euro zone in a decade, said Marek Zuber, economist at the WSB Academy in an interview with the tvn24.pl business editorial team. In his opinion, when we meet all the criteria and are close to the richest countries, the adoption of the euro will be beneficial in Poland.
– I am very sorry that the euro has become a political hostage, like the question of immigration or the retirement age, and therefore such a reliable and reasoned debate on this topic is becoming more and more difficult not only among politicians, but also among experts. . Zuber said.
He emphasized that in the political world “the topic is played according to the immediate needs”, while political views on this topic are also becoming more and more visible among experts.
What about the Euro in Poland?
– Currently, Poland does not even meet the nominal standards related to the adoption of the common currency, for example, the standard of the deficit of the public finance sector, which should be less than 3 percent of GDP, – explained the economist.
He added that it is impossible to adopt the euro while Poland is under excessive deficit procedure.
– It is also a question of inflation, it is also about interest rates, so we cannot meet the requirements for joining the euro zone today, – he noted.
The expert also drew attention to “real standards for which no one will hold us accountable.” Among other things, we are talking about making the economy of the country that wants to adopt the euro similar to the richest countries of the euro area. – This applies to values such as per capita income and labor productivity. We still miss a lot here, he explained.
When is the Euro in Poland?
– I think we can seriously talk about entering the euro zone in ten years. So maybe there really is a chance for safe entry, which means meeting EU standards on the one hand and getting closer to the richest economy on the other, Zuber said.
According to Zuber, the great hatred of Poles for the euro is, on the one hand, the result of the actions of politicians, that is, the hatred of the common currency, and on the other hand, it is a reminder of the crisis of the euro area. – In order to seriously talk about the adoption of a common currency, we must first persuade the Poles to look more optimistically at this issue – he added.
The expert reminded that “Poland is committed to accept the common currency.” – We did not negotiate like England used to. No one is pressuring us to accept the euro now, but I can imagine such a situation in a few years, he said.
Is the euro good for Poland?
– In my opinion, joining the euro zone will be beneficial for Poland when we meet the nominal standards and come close to the richest countries in real terms, – said the economist.
He explained that this not only reduces the risk of doing business in Poland, but also the risk of the exchange rate and access to more capital than our country has.
– Of course, these elements are many and there are more, and in my opinion, they also cover the shortcomings related to the euro zone. It is worth entering, but unfortunately this is not the moment, we are not ready yet, – he concluded.
Euro in Poland and Maastricht rates
The condition for joining the euro zone is the fulfillment of four conditions – the so-called Maastricht criteria. According to this year's report, Poland has not yet met any of them.
One condition concerns price stability – inflation should not exceed 1.5%. from the average price level calculated for the three euro zone countries with the lowest inflation rate.
The second condition relates to public finances – it requires that the deficit does not exceed 3%. GDP and public debt did not exceed 60 percent. GDP. This year, Poland was included in the excessive deficit procedure.
The third condition concerns long-term interest rates – they can be at most 2 percent higher. calculated from the average for the three countries of the euro zone with the lowest interest rates.
The fourth condition concerns a stable currency – it states that a country that wants to join the euro zone must participate in the ERM II exchange rate mechanism for at least two years.
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