Photo: NYRA / Dom Napolitano / Eclipse Sportswire
There's also a chance of rain again Wednesday at Saratoga, and while it would be nice to see fast, firm conditions for this nine-race program, I'll provide five predictions for the card, rain or shine.
Best bet: Virgin Colada (Race 8)
Most Valuable Bets: Check Cleared (Race 5)
Race 2
Reserve Currency (3-1), in sixth place, was a smart $25,000 claimer by Mike Maker and beat a $50,000 starter allowance horse handily last time out. The five-year-old American Freedom stallion has moved up another step in the class ladder, but recent speed figures suggest he can't be beaten. Froma No Samuta (9-2), in second place, was a solid second to a previous allowance horse after beating a $40,000 claimer two races ago. He's rated more modestly than Sun Thunder (2-1, morning line favorite), in fourth place, who is taking on a much more notable second Ittys with a 6-0-4 record in 2024.
How I would bet on a $100 budget: $10 extractor 6/2,4
Race 5
Second-place finisher Check Cleared (6-1), a promising horse who has trained at a fast pace on both turf and dirt, is ridden by Flavian Prat and has a 14% winning percentage in the first race with jockey George Weaver in the lead. Eighth-place finisher English Castle (5-2, the morning line favorite) won by a neck against 10th-place finisher Col (3-1) in similar conditions on July 25. Col's trainer, Chad Brown, may have a title shot at Saratoga, but Check Cleared is trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., who has a 36% winning percentage here and is a favorite to place.
My bet: $3 exacta box 2/8/10, $2 win
Dirt Pick: 2-1-10
Race 7
No. 5 Athena Beach (3-1, the morning line favorite) was wild out of the gate on her way to finishing second behind the next runner when last seen at this level. The tactically versatile daughter of Bank Heist can win this group if she is on her best behavior. No. 9 Sue Ellen Mishkin (6-1) is expected to bring some race speed in her first start since March 30th in the Jose Ortiz favored field. Be sure to come and see this horse trained by Linda Rice, who has 10 wins from 21 starts. No. 8 Queen's Masterpiece (8-1) has won in four of her past five starts and was a big winner this time around.
My bets: $8 Extabox 5/9, $2 Exta 5.9/8
Race 8
Second-place Virgin Colada (2-1, the morning line favorite) came from far back and never really got going at first, but Brown seems to have another exciting filly turf prospect on his hands. Out of More Than Ready and out of a Carpe Diem mare, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her win the PG Johnson Stakes on dirt with Pratt in charge. First-place See's Our Tears (10-1) and fifth-place Second Chance (20-1) are turf sprinters who will try their luck in the final straight. The former was a little quick in her debut, but the latter is sure to be even quicker in her second start with Bill Mott in charge.
My bet: $10 extra 2/1,5
Dirt Picks: 2-1-5
Race 9
Majour (9-2), #10, missed out on the Diploma after a close defeat in his second start. At this level, you can win against outclassed horses and unimpressive veterans at reasonable odds. Better Be Smart (8-1), #5, ran a winnable race at this level two races ago, but was beaten by a tougher horse last time. If you can forgive his effort, you can get the odds to bounce back against Claimer. Laura Na (3-1, morning line favorite), #6, will also try to break the record at a shorter distance. It is logical, but Florent Geroux, who replaces Christophe Clement, could overdraw the stakes.
My bets: $2 Extabox 5/6/10, $2 Extakybox 10/5,6
Dirt Pick: 10-12-5
Robert Criscola is a New York-based freelance handicapper.
